ThredUp Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

TDUP Stock  USD 5.19  0.07  1.33%   
ThredUp Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although ThredUp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ThredUp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ThredUp fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of RSI of ThredUp's share price is approaching 32. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ThredUp, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 32

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ThredUp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ThredUp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ThredUp's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.04)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.15)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.12)
Wall Street Target Price
12.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.336
Using ThredUp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ThredUp from the perspective of ThredUp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ThredUp using ThredUp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ThredUp using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ThredUp's stock price.

ThredUp Short Interest

An investor who is long ThredUp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ThredUp and may potentially protect profits, hedge ThredUp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
6.7452
Short Percent
0.1574
Short Ratio
10.92
Shares Short Prior Month
15.4 M
50 Day MA
9.3757

ThredUp Relative Strength Index

The Simple Regression forecasted value of ThredUp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.78.

ThredUp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ThredUp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ThredUp. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ThredUp can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ThredUp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ThredUp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ThredUp.

ThredUp Implied Volatility

    
  1.15  
ThredUp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ThredUp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ThredUp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ThredUp stock will not fluctuate a lot when ThredUp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ThredUp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.78.

ThredUp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ThredUp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in ThredUp Stock, please use our How to Invest in ThredUp guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ThredUp contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ThredUp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0719% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ThredUp trading at USD 5.19, that is roughly USD 0.00373 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ThredUp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ThredUp options at the current volatility level of 1.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ThredUp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ThredUp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ThredUp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ThredUp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ThredUp's open interest, investors have to compare it to ThredUp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ThredUp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ThredUp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

ThredUp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ThredUp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ThredUp using various technical indicators. When you analyze ThredUp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through ThredUp price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

ThredUp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ThredUp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ThredUp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ThredUp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ThredUp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ThredUp  ThredUp Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

ThredUp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ThredUp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ThredUp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.64 and 9.06, respectively. We have considered ThredUp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.19
5.35
Expected Value
9.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ThredUp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ThredUp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8458
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4481
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0621
SAESum of the absolute errors27.784
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as ThredUp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for ThredUp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ThredUp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ThredUp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.595.309.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.256.9610.67
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
11.3812.5013.88
Details

ThredUp After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ThredUp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ThredUp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ThredUp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ThredUp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ThredUp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ThredUp's historical news coverage. ThredUp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.59 and 9.01, respectively. We have considered ThredUp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.19
5.30
After-hype Price
9.01
Upside
ThredUp is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ThredUp is based on 3 months time horizon.

ThredUp Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ThredUp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ThredUp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ThredUp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.75 
3.71
  0.11 
  0.15 
11 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.19
5.30
2.12 
2,650  
Notes

ThredUp Hype Timeline

ThredUp is at this time traded for 5.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. ThredUp is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.3 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 2.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.75%. The volatility of related hype on ThredUp is about 1800.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.34. ThredUp currently holds 58.84 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.52, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ThredUp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in ThredUp Stock, please use our How to Invest in ThredUp guide.

ThredUp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ThredUp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ThredUp's future price movements. Getting to know how ThredUp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ThredUp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NEGGNewegg Commerce(0.35)8 per month 5.80  0.06  12.04 (8.42) 58.55 
WOOFPet Acquisition LLC(0.04)7 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.38 (5.07) 20.36 
CRICarters(0.29)8 per month 2.62  0.02  5.04 (5.25) 14.38 
EVGOEvgo Inc 0.04 10 per month 0.00 (0.11) 5.84 (5.71) 16.24 
GIIIG III Apparel Group(0.36)12 per month 1.69 (0) 3.85 (2.62) 9.35 
LEGLeggett Platt Incorporated 0.40 12 per month 1.90  0.11  5.34 (3.35) 20.61 
HEPSD MARKET Electronic Services(0.01)8 per month 4.87  0.04  3.23 (4.94) 61.70 
MLKNMillerKnoll 0.28 9 per month 2.14  0.05  4.63 (3.96) 11.89 
REREATRenew Inc DRC(0.33)6 per month 2.10  0.21  6.33 (3.03) 13.51 
AEVAAeva Technologies Common 2.72 9 per month 0.00 (0.02) 16.00 (10.24) 48.05 

Other Forecasting Options for ThredUp

For every potential investor in ThredUp, whether a beginner or expert, ThredUp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ThredUp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ThredUp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ThredUp's price trends.

ThredUp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ThredUp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ThredUp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ThredUp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ThredUp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ThredUp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ThredUp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ThredUp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ThredUp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ThredUp Risk Indicators

The analysis of ThredUp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ThredUp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thredup stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ThredUp

The number of cover stories for ThredUp depends on current market conditions and ThredUp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ThredUp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ThredUp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ThredUp Short Properties

ThredUp's future price predictability will typically decrease when ThredUp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ThredUp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ThredUp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ThredUp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding112 M
Cash And Short Term Investments44.2 M

Additional Tools for ThredUp Stock Analysis

When running ThredUp's price analysis, check to measure ThredUp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ThredUp is operating at the current time. Most of ThredUp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ThredUp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ThredUp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ThredUp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.