Target Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TGT Stock | USD 105.47 2.63 2.56% |
Target Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Target's share price is at 56. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Target, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.2925 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.6661 | Wall Street Target Price 100.3438 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.7081 |
Using Target hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Target from the perspective of Target response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Target using Target's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Target using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Target's stock price.
Target Short Interest
An investor who is long Target may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Target and may potentially protect profits, hedge Target with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 96.5521 | Short Percent 0.0404 | Short Ratio 2.54 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.2 M | 50 Day MA 98.3322 |
Target Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Target on the next trading day is expected to be 105.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.79.Target Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Target's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Target. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Target can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Target. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Target's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Target.
Target Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Target's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Target stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Target's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Target stock will not fluctuate a lot when Target's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Target on the next trading day is expected to be 105.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.79. Target after-hype prediction price | USD 105.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Target to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Target contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Target will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Target trading at USD 105.47, that is roughly USD 0.025 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Target's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Target options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Target Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Target's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Target's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Target stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Target's open interest, investors have to compare it to Target's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Target is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Target. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Target Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Target price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Target using various technical indicators. When you analyze Target charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Target Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Target on the next trading day is expected to be 105.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43, mean absolute percentage error of 3.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Target Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Target's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Target Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Target | Target Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Target Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Target's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Target's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.62 and 107.32, respectively. We have considered Target's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Target stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Target stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4256 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2448 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4298 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.79 |
Predictive Modules for Target
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Target. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Target After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Target at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Target or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Target, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Target Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Target's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Target's historical news coverage. Target's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 103.55 and 107.25, respectively. We have considered Target's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Target is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Target is based on 3 months time horizon.
Target Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Target is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Target backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Target, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.85 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
105.47 | 105.40 | 0.07 |
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Target Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Target is traded for 105.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Target is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 105.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Target is about 488.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 105.36. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Target was at this time reported as 34.23. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.92. Target recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 20th of July 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Target to cross-verify your projections.Target Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Target's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Target's future price movements. Getting to know how Target's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Target may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KR | Kroger Company | (1.10) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.55 | (2.68) | 7.52 | |
| CCEP | Coca Cola European Partners | 0.60 | 7 per month | 1.29 | (0.01) | 1.95 | (2.11) | 5.66 | |
| ABEV | Ambev SA ADR | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.94 | 0.24 | 3.04 | (1.71) | 10.33 | |
| DG | Dollar General | (1.97) | 9 per month | 1.56 | 0.19 | 4.59 | (2.38) | 20.14 | |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree | 0.65 | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.08 | 4.05 | (2.85) | 10.30 | |
| SYY | Sysco | (0.43) | 8 per month | 0.99 | 0.05 | 2.68 | (2.10) | 11.45 | |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | (0.12) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.97 | (1.93) | 5.87 | |
| KMB | Kimberly Clark | (1.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.17 | (1.59) | 17.56 | |
| JBS | JBS NV | (0.08) | 10 per month | 1.41 | 0.16 | 2.58 | (2.78) | 8.67 | |
| HSY | Hershey Co | (0.16) | 9 per month | 1.42 | 0.06 | 2.37 | (2.35) | 6.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Target
For every potential investor in Target, whether a beginner or expert, Target's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Target Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Target. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Target's price trends.Target Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Target stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Target could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Target by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Target Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Target stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Target shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Target stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Target entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Target Risk Indicators
The analysis of Target's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Target's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting target stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Target
The number of cover stories for Target depends on current market conditions and Target's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Target is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Target's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Target Short Properties
Target's future price predictability will typically decrease when Target's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Target often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Target's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Target's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 461.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.8 B |
Additional Tools for Target Stock Analysis
When running Target's price analysis, check to measure Target's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Target is operating at the current time. Most of Target's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Target's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Target's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Target to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.