Tenet Healthcare Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| THC Stock | USD 189.15 0.77 0.41% |
Tenet Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tenet Healthcare stock prices and determine the direction of Tenet Healthcare's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tenet Healthcare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Tenet Healthcare's share price is approaching 41. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Tenet Healthcare, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Tenet Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tenet Healthcare from the perspective of Tenet Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Tenet Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 186.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 332.91. Tenet Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 189.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tenet Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. Tenet Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tenet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tenet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tenet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tenet Healthcare Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Tenet Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 186.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.37, mean absolute percentage error of 45.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 332.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tenet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tenet Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tenet Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
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Tenet Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tenet Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tenet Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 184.21 and 188.75, respectively. We have considered Tenet Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tenet Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tenet Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.7745 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.3694 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0265 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 332.9054 |
Predictive Modules for Tenet Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tenet Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tenet Healthcare After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tenet Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tenet Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tenet Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tenet Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tenet Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tenet Healthcare's historical news coverage. Tenet Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 186.90 and 191.40, respectively. We have considered Tenet Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tenet Healthcare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tenet Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tenet Healthcare Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tenet Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tenet Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tenet Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.27 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 4 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
189.15 | 189.15 | 0.00 |
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Tenet Healthcare Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Tenet Healthcare is traded for 189.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Tenet is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 158.74%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tenet Healthcare is about 1891.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 189.13. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Tenet Healthcare was at this time reported as 45.68. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.85. Tenet Healthcare recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.71. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of March 2000. The firm had 1:4 split on the 11th of October 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tenet Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.Tenet Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tenet Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tenet Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Tenet Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tenet Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Tenet Healthcare
For every potential investor in Tenet, whether a beginner or expert, Tenet Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tenet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tenet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tenet Healthcare's price trends.Tenet Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tenet Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tenet Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tenet Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tenet Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tenet Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tenet Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tenet Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tenet Healthcare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 66927.92 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.06) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 195.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 193.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (6.35) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.77) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.09 |
Tenet Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tenet Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tenet Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tenet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tenet Healthcare
The number of cover stories for Tenet Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Tenet Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tenet Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tenet Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tenet Healthcare Short Properties
Tenet Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tenet Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tenet Healthcare often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tenet Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tenet Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tenet Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Tenet Stock refer to our How to Trade Tenet Stock guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tenet Healthcare. If investors know Tenet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tenet Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Tenet Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tenet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tenet Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tenet Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tenet Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tenet Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tenet Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tenet Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tenet Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.