Hanover Insurance Stock Forward View
| THG Stock | USD 187.69 10.18 5.73% |
This Naive Prediction projection for Hanover Insurance is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. The Naive Prediction model projects Hanover Insurance at 181.68 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.
Hanover Insurance Cash Forecast
Statistical forecasting of Hanover Insurance's financial indicators relies on detecting patterns in past data. Business cycle sensitivity and seasonal effects are factored into forward-looking estimates of Hanover Insurance's position. Statistical pattern recognition reveals recurring cycles in Hanover Insurance's cash generation.
Cash | First Reported 1996-06-30 | Previous Quarter 1.1 B | Current Value 243.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 209.7 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Hanover Insurance at 181.68 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 122.89 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Hanover Insurance's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hanover Insurance | Hanover Insurance Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for Hanover Insurance reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The current forecast range spans downside near 180.32 and upside near 183.04. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Hanover Insurance stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9898 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0145 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 122.8869 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hanover Insurance
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Hanover Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Hanover occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Hanover Insurance's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves.View Hanover Insurance's Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hanover Insurance Market Strength Events
Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Hanover Insurance measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Hanover Insurance have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside Hanover Insurance's volume profile and volatility measures.
Hanover Insurance Risk Indicators
Standard deviation and variance for Hanover Insurance measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Hanover Insurance's price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing Hanover Insurance's risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Hanover Insurance Short Properties
Short-interest data for Hanover Insurance reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |