Hanover Insurance Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| THG Stock | USD 174.14 0.38 0.22% |
Hanover Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hanover Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 31st of January 2026, the relative strength indicator of Hanover Insurance's share price is approaching 49. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hanover Insurance, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.751 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.5483 | EPS Estimate Current Year 18.3357 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.8725 | Wall Street Target Price 199.5 |
Using Hanover Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Hanover Insurance from the perspective of Hanover Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hanover Insurance using Hanover Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hanover using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hanover Insurance's stock price.
Hanover Insurance Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Hanover Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hanover. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hanover Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 173.351 | Short Percent 0.0224 | Short Ratio 2.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 641.9 K | 50 Day MA 179.274 |
Hanover Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Hanover Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 174.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 251.43.Hanover Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hanover Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hanover. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hanover can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Hanover Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hanover Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hanover Insurance.
Hanover Insurance Implied Volatility | 0.29 |
Hanover Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Hanover Insurance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hanover Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hanover Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hanover Insurance's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Hanover Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 174.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 251.43. Hanover Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 174.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hanover Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hanover contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Hanover Insurance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Hanover Insurance trading at USD 174.14, that is roughly USD 0.0316 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hanover Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Hanover Insurance options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Hanover Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hanover Insurance's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hanover Insurance's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hanover Insurance stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hanover Insurance's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hanover Insurance's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hanover Insurance is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hanover. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Hanover Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hanover price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hanover using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hanover charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hanover Insurance Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of The Hanover Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 174.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.06, mean absolute percentage error of 23.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 251.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hanover Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hanover Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hanover Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hanover Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hanover Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hanover Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 173.45 and 175.73, respectively. We have considered Hanover Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hanover Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hanover Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.1117 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0554 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 251.4346 |
Predictive Modules for Hanover Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hanover Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hanover Insurance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hanover Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hanover Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hanover Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hanover Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hanover Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hanover Insurance's historical news coverage. Hanover Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 172.91 and 175.19, respectively. We have considered Hanover Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hanover Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hanover Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hanover Insurance Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hanover Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hanover Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hanover Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.14 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
174.14 | 174.05 | 0.05 |
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Hanover Insurance Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January Hanover Insurance is traded for 174.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Hanover is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 174.05. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 60.32%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Hanover Insurance is about 87.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 174.21. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.8. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Hanover Insurance recorded earning per share (EPS) of 17.29. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 2025. The firm had 5:4 split on the November 8, 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hanover Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Hanover Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hanover Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hanover Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Hanover Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hanover Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Hanover Insurance
For every potential investor in Hanover, whether a beginner or expert, Hanover Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hanover Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hanover. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hanover Insurance's price trends.View Hanover Insurance Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hanover Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hanover Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hanover Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hanover Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Hanover Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hanover Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hanover Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hanover Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hanover stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.878 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hanover Insurance
The number of cover stories for Hanover Insurance depends on current market conditions and Hanover Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hanover Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hanover Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hanover Insurance Short Properties
Hanover Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hanover Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Hanover Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hanover Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hanover Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hanover Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Can Property & Casualty Insurance industry sustain growth momentum? Does Hanover have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hanover Insurance. If investors know Hanover will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Hanover Insurance demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.751 | Dividend Share 3.6 | Earnings Share 17.29 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.064 |
The market value of Hanover Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hanover that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hanover Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hanover Insurance's true underlying value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Because Hanover Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hanover Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hanover Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hanover Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Hanover Insurance's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.