Tompkins Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| TMP Stock | USD 80.12 3.39 4.42% |
Tompkins Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Tompkins Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Tompkins Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Tompkins Financial fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Tompkins Financial's stock price is slightly above 63. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Tompkins, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.857 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.755 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.295 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.915 | Wall Street Target Price 78 |
Using Tompkins Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tompkins Financial from the perspective of Tompkins Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tompkins Financial using Tompkins Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tompkins using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tompkins Financial's stock price.
Tompkins Financial Short Interest
An investor who is long Tompkins Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Tompkins Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Tompkins Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 66.885 | Short Percent 0.0106 | Short Ratio 2.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 125.6 K | 50 Day MA 73.4134 |
Tompkins Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 80.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.92.Tompkins Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Tompkins Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Tompkins. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tompkins can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tompkins Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Tompkins Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Tompkins Financial.
Tompkins Financial Implied Volatility | 0.7 |
Tompkins Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tompkins Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tompkins Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tompkins Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tompkins Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 80.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.92. Tompkins Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 80.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tompkins Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tompkins contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tompkins Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0438% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Tompkins Financial trading at USD 80.12, that is roughly USD 0.0351 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tompkins Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tompkins Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Tompkins Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tompkins Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tompkins Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tompkins Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tompkins Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Tompkins Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tompkins Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tompkins. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Tompkins Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tompkins price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tompkins using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tompkins charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tompkins Financial Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 80.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 2.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tompkins Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tompkins Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tompkins Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tompkins Financial | Tompkins Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Tompkins Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tompkins Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tompkins Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.24 and 82.00, respectively. We have considered Tompkins Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tompkins Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tompkins Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1977 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3453 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1003 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.915 |
Predictive Modules for Tompkins Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tompkins Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tompkins Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tompkins Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tompkins Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tompkins Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tompkins Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tompkins Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tompkins Financial's historical news coverage. Tompkins Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.25 and 81.99, respectively. We have considered Tompkins Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tompkins Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tompkins Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tompkins Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tompkins Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tompkins Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tompkins Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.88 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
80.12 | 80.12 | 0.00 |
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Tompkins Financial Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Tompkins Financial is traded for 80.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Tompkins is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tompkins Financial is about 8545.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 80.13. About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.23. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tompkins Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.77. The firm last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. Tompkins Financial had 11:10 split on the 3rd of February 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tompkins Financial to cross-verify your projections.Tompkins Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tompkins Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tompkins Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Tompkins Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tompkins Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.66 | (0.01) | 3.49 | (3.21) | 16.54 | |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp | (1.24) | 21 per month | 1.49 | 0.05 | 3.09 | (1.66) | 11.79 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 1.58 | 8 per month | 1.58 | 0.05 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | 0.13 | 18 per month | 1.38 | 0.13 | 2.92 | (2.35) | 10.21 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | (0.08) | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.09 | 2.92 | (2.17) | 7.86 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.11 | 3.31 | (2.58) | 9.25 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | (0.14) | 9 per month | 0.92 | 0.14 | 2.73 | (1.57) | 8.89 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.50 | 8 per month | 1.58 | 0.14 | 4.14 | (2.97) | 8.63 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.40 | (0.02) | 3.12 | (1.93) | 18.16 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | (0.29) | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.07 | 3.42 | (2.09) | 9.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tompkins Financial
For every potential investor in Tompkins, whether a beginner or expert, Tompkins Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tompkins Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tompkins. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tompkins Financial's price trends.Tompkins Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tompkins Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tompkins Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tompkins Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tompkins Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tompkins Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tompkins Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tompkins Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tompkins Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tompkins Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tompkins Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tompkins Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tompkins stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tompkins Financial
The number of cover stories for Tompkins Financial depends on current market conditions and Tompkins Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tompkins Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tompkins Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tompkins Financial Short Properties
Tompkins Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tompkins Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tompkins Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tompkins Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tompkins Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Additional Tools for Tompkins Stock Analysis
When running Tompkins Financial's price analysis, check to measure Tompkins Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tompkins Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Tompkins Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tompkins Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tompkins Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tompkins Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.