Tootsie Roll Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TR Stock | USD 37.55 0.17 0.45% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tootsie Roll Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 37.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.93. Tootsie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Tootsie Roll's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Tootsie Roll's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Tootsie Roll fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Tootsie Roll's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.095 | Wall Street Target Price 19 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
Using Tootsie Roll hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tootsie Roll Industries from the perspective of Tootsie Roll response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tootsie Roll using Tootsie Roll's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tootsie using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tootsie Roll's stock price.
Tootsie Roll Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Tootsie Roll's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tootsie Roll Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tootsie Roll's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tootsie Roll stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tootsie Roll's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tootsie Roll Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 37.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.93. Tootsie Roll after-hype prediction price | USD 37.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tootsie Roll to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tootsie contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tootsie Roll Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Tootsie Roll trading at USD 37.55, that is roughly USD 0.0124 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tootsie Roll's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tootsie Roll Industries options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Tootsie Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tootsie Roll's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tootsie Roll's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tootsie Roll stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tootsie Roll's open interest, investors have to compare it to Tootsie Roll's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tootsie Roll is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tootsie. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Tootsie Roll Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tootsie price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tootsie using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tootsie charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tootsie Roll Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Tootsie Roll's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 120.5 M | Current Value 78.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 35.6 M |
Tootsie Roll Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tootsie Roll Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 37.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tootsie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tootsie Roll's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tootsie Roll Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tootsie Roll | Tootsie Roll Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tootsie Roll Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tootsie Roll's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tootsie Roll's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.58 and 39.33, respectively. We have considered Tootsie Roll's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tootsie Roll stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tootsie Roll stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0687 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4907 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.932 |
Predictive Modules for Tootsie Roll
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tootsie Roll Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tootsie Roll After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tootsie Roll at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tootsie Roll or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tootsie Roll, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tootsie Roll Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tootsie Roll's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tootsie Roll's historical news coverage. Tootsie Roll's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.17 and 38.93, respectively. We have considered Tootsie Roll's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tootsie Roll is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tootsie Roll Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tootsie Roll Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tootsie Roll is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tootsie Roll backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tootsie Roll, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.37 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 29 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
37.55 | 37.55 | 0.00 |
|
Tootsie Roll Hype Timeline
As of January 25, 2026 Tootsie Roll Industries is listed for 37.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.31, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Tootsie is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 48.24%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tootsie Roll is about 244.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.49. About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Tootsie Roll was at this time reported as 12.61. The company last dividend was issued on the 24th of December 2025. Tootsie Roll Industries had 103:100 split on the 5th of March 2025. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tootsie Roll to cross-verify your projections.Tootsie Roll Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tootsie Roll's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tootsie Roll's future price movements. Getting to know how Tootsie Roll's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tootsie Roll may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ANDE | The Andersons | 0.51 | 15 per month | 1.41 | 0.15 | 4.37 | (2.24) | 7.65 | |
| UTI | Universal Technical Institute | (0.42) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.86 | (4.31) | 25.31 | |
| VITL | Vital Farms | 0.23 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.50 | (5.75) | 22.88 | |
| WMK | Weis Markets | (0.38) | 7 per month | 1.27 | (0.05) | 2.23 | (2.09) | 7.02 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | 0.02 | 11 per month | 1.55 | (0.03) | 2.79 | (2.71) | 9.39 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | 0.51 | 11 per month | 1.37 | 0.19 | 4.03 | (2.64) | 10.86 | |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets Incorporated | (2.66) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.21 | (2.41) | 7.85 | |
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | 0.51 | 13 per month | 1.57 | 0.04 | 2.19 | (2.84) | 8.48 | |
| NOMD | Nomad Foods | (4.90) | 5 per month | 1.16 | (0.05) | 1.82 | (2.18) | 8.79 | |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings | 0.98 | 19 per month | 1.57 | 0.09 | 3.51 | (2.75) | 12.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tootsie Roll
For every potential investor in Tootsie, whether a beginner or expert, Tootsie Roll's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tootsie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tootsie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tootsie Roll's price trends.Tootsie Roll Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tootsie Roll stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tootsie Roll could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tootsie Roll by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tootsie Roll Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tootsie Roll stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tootsie Roll shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tootsie Roll stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tootsie Roll Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tootsie Roll Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tootsie Roll's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tootsie Roll's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tootsie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tootsie Roll
The number of cover stories for Tootsie Roll depends on current market conditions and Tootsie Roll's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tootsie Roll is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tootsie Roll's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Tootsie Roll Short Properties
Tootsie Roll's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tootsie Roll's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tootsie Roll Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tootsie Roll's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tootsie Roll's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 194.6 M |
Additional Tools for Tootsie Stock Analysis
When running Tootsie Roll's price analysis, check to measure Tootsie Roll's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tootsie Roll is operating at the current time. Most of Tootsie Roll's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tootsie Roll's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tootsie Roll's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tootsie Roll to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.