Tootsie Roll Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

TR Stock  USD 36.63  0.19  0.52%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Tootsie Roll Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.63. Tootsie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Tootsie Roll's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Tootsie Roll's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Tootsie Roll and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Tootsie Roll's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Tootsie Roll Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Tootsie Roll hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tootsie Roll Industries from the perspective of Tootsie Roll response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Tootsie Roll Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.63.

Tootsie Roll after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 36.63  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tootsie Roll to cross-verify your projections.

Tootsie Roll Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Tootsie price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tootsie using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tootsie charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Tootsie Roll price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Tootsie Roll Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Tootsie Roll Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 3.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tootsie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tootsie Roll's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tootsie Roll Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tootsie RollTootsie Roll Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Tootsie Roll Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tootsie Roll's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tootsie Roll's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.32 and 38.08, respectively. We have considered Tootsie Roll's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.63
36.20
Expected Value
38.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tootsie Roll stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tootsie Roll stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.297
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3219
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0343
SAESum of the absolute errors80.634
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Tootsie Roll Industries historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Tootsie Roll

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tootsie Roll Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.7636.6338.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.0537.9239.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
36.6737.4238.18
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Tootsie Roll

For every potential investor in Tootsie, whether a beginner or expert, Tootsie Roll's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tootsie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tootsie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tootsie Roll's price trends.

Tootsie Roll Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tootsie Roll stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tootsie Roll could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tootsie Roll by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tootsie Roll Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tootsie Roll's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tootsie Roll's current price.

Tootsie Roll Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tootsie Roll stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tootsie Roll shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tootsie Roll stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tootsie Roll Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tootsie Roll Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tootsie Roll's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tootsie Roll's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tootsie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Tootsie Roll

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Tootsie Roll position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Tootsie Roll will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Tootsie Stock

  0.7PTAIY Astra International TbkPairCorr
  0.67IBM International BusinessPairCorr
  0.66BAC Bank of AmericaPairCorr
  0.65PPERY Bank Mandiri PerseroPairCorr
  0.63PBCRY Bank Central AsiaPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Tootsie Roll could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Tootsie Roll when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Tootsie Roll - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Tootsie Roll Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Tootsie Roll is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Tootsie Roll moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Tootsie Roll Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Tootsie Roll can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Tootsie Stock Analysis

When running Tootsie Roll's price analysis, check to measure Tootsie Roll's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tootsie Roll is operating at the current time. Most of Tootsie Roll's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tootsie Roll's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tootsie Roll's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tootsie Roll to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.