Travelers Companies Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| TRV Stock | USD 284.51 0.22 0.08% |
Travelers Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Travelers Companies' share price is at 55. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Travelers Companies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.234 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 7.0491 | EPS Estimate Current Year 27.2583 | EPS Estimate Next Year 28.2501 | Wall Street Target Price 300.4546 |
Using Travelers Companies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Travelers Companies from the perspective of Travelers Companies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Travelers Companies using Travelers Companies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Travelers using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Travelers Companies' stock price.
Travelers Companies Short Interest
An investor who is long Travelers Companies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Travelers Companies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Travelers Companies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 272.7638 | Short Percent 0.016 | Short Ratio 2.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 284.8434 |
Travelers Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Travelers Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 282.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 335.29.The Travelers Companies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Travelers Companies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Travelers. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Travelers can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Travelers Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Travelers Companies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Travelers Companies.
Travelers Companies Implied Volatility | 0.27 |
Travelers Companies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Travelers Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Travelers Companies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Travelers Companies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Travelers Companies' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Travelers Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 282.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 335.29. Travelers Companies after-hype prediction price | USD 285.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Travelers | Build AI portfolio with Travelers Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Travelers contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Travelers Companies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0169% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Travelers Companies trading at USD 284.51, that is roughly USD 0.048 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Travelers Companies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Travelers Companies options at the current volatility level of 0.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Travelers Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Travelers Companies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Travelers Companies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Travelers Companies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Travelers Companies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Travelers Companies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Travelers Companies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Travelers. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Travelers Companies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Travelers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Travelers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Travelers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Travelers Companies Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of The Travelers Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 282.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.41, mean absolute percentage error of 45.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 335.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Travelers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Travelers Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Travelers Companies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Travelers Companies | Travelers Companies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Travelers Companies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Travelers Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Travelers Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 281.35 and 283.38, respectively. We have considered Travelers Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Travelers Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Travelers Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.7766 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.4079 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 335.2926 |
Predictive Modules for Travelers Companies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The Travelers Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Travelers Companies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Travelers Companies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Travelers Companies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Travelers Companies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Travelers Companies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Travelers Companies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Travelers Companies' historical news coverage. Travelers Companies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 284.32 and 286.34, respectively. We have considered Travelers Companies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Travelers Companies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of The Travelers Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Travelers Companies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Travelers Companies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Travelers Companies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Travelers Companies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.01 | 0.82 | 0.24 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
284.51 | 285.33 | 0.29 |
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Travelers Companies Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January The Travelers Companies is traded for 284.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.82, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Travelers is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 285.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 13.63%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Travelers Companies is about 45.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 284.75. The company reported the last year's revenue of 48.83 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.29 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 14.34 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Travelers Companies to cross-verify your projections.Travelers Companies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Travelers Companies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Travelers Companies' future price movements. Getting to know how Travelers Companies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Travelers Companies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BAC-PE | Bank of America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.87 | (1.49) | 2.96 | |
| COKE | Coca Cola Consolidated | 2.24 | 10 per month | 1.12 | 0.12 | 3.53 | (2.25) | 9.33 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | (0.91) | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| ESLT | Elbit Systems | 13.13 | 9 per month | 1.33 | 0.26 | 3.77 | (2.68) | 10.89 | |
| IDCC | InterDigital | (7.33) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.53 | (4.57) | 17.55 | |
| ZKH | ZKH Group Limited | 0.12 | 9 per month | 2.82 | 0.06 | 6.38 | (3.63) | 25.66 | |
| VMGRX | Vanguard Mid Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | 0.08 | 1.64 | (1.86) | 21.91 | |
| COLA | Columbus Acquisition Corp | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.47 | (0.38) | 1.83 | |
| MPIEX | Mondrian International Value | 14.91 | 6 per month | 0.38 | 0.14 | 1.22 | (1.05) | 4.68 | |
| KOF | Coca Cola Femsa SAB | (0.16) | 11 per month | 0.98 | 0.17 | 2.76 | (1.79) | 5.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Travelers Companies
For every potential investor in Travelers, whether a beginner or expert, Travelers Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Travelers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Travelers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Travelers Companies' price trends.Travelers Companies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Travelers Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Travelers Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Travelers Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Travelers Companies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Travelers Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Travelers Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Travelers Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Travelers Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Travelers Companies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Travelers Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Travelers Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting travelers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7328 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.803 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9943 | |||
| Variance | 0.9886 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7973 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6447 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Travelers Companies
The number of cover stories for Travelers Companies depends on current market conditions and Travelers Companies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Travelers Companies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Travelers Companies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Travelers Companies Short Properties
Travelers Companies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Travelers Companies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Travelers Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Travelers Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Travelers Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 227.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.6 B |
Additional Tools for Travelers Stock Analysis
When running Travelers Companies' price analysis, check to measure Travelers Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Travelers Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Travelers Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Travelers Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Travelers Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Travelers Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.