Ternium SA Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TX Stock | USD 43.51 0.10 0.23% |
Ternium Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Ternium SA's stock price is slightly above 67. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ternium, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.073 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1372 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1158 | Wall Street Target Price 39.6923 |
Using Ternium SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ternium SA ADR from the perspective of Ternium SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ternium SA using Ternium SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ternium using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ternium SA's stock price.
Ternium SA Short Interest
An investor who is long Ternium SA may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ternium SA and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ternium SA with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.6685 | Short Percent 0.0171 | Short Ratio 4.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 747.9 K | 50 Day MA 38.7798 |
Ternium Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ternium SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 43.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.21.Ternium SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ternium SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ternium. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ternium can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ternium SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ternium SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ternium SA.
Ternium SA Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Ternium SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ternium SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ternium SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ternium SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ternium SA's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ternium SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 43.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.21. Ternium SA after-hype prediction price | USD 43.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ternium SA to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ternium contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ternium SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Ternium SA trading at USD 43.51, that is roughly USD 0.0144 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ternium SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ternium SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ternium Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ternium SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ternium SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ternium SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ternium SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ternium SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ternium SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ternium. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ternium SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ternium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ternium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ternium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ternium SA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ternium SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 43.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ternium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ternium SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ternium SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ternium SA | Ternium SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ternium SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ternium SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ternium SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.22 and 45.18, respectively. We have considered Ternium SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ternium SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ternium SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.099 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4611 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.2066 |
Predictive Modules for Ternium SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ternium SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ternium SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ternium SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ternium SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ternium SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ternium SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ternium SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ternium SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ternium SA's historical news coverage. Ternium SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.05 and 45.01, respectively. We have considered Ternium SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ternium SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ternium SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ternium SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ternium SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ternium SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ternium SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 1.48 | 0.02 | 2.09 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
43.51 | 43.53 | 0.05 |
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Ternium SA Hype Timeline
As of January 29, 2026 Ternium SA ADR is listed for 43.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.09. Ternium is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 43.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Ternium SA is about 25.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.42. The company generated the yearly revenue of 17.65 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (53.67 M) with gross profit of 2.19 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ternium SA to cross-verify your projections.Ternium SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ternium SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ternium SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Ternium SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ternium SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GGB | Gerdau SA ADR | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.48 | 0.22 | 3.56 | (2.40) | 11.29 | |
| CMC | Commercial Metals | 1.83 | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.14 | 3.69 | (1.90) | 8.69 | |
| CLF | Cleveland Cliffs | (0.59) | 9 per month | 4.65 | 0.04 | 5.23 | (7.09) | 17.86 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | (0.89) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.89 | (2.74) | 9.20 | |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | 0.35 | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0.05 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| NEU | NewMarket | (58.28) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.25 | (2.77) | 11.14 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | (1.10) | 7 per month | 2.10 | 0.26 | 5.49 | (4.44) | 18.37 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | (0.07) | 13 per month | 1.13 | 0.12 | 2.69 | (2.53) | 7.97 | |
| ESI | Element Solutions | 0.65 | 10 per month | 1.69 | 0.08 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| HBM | Hudbay Minerals | 0.04 | 10 per month | 2.12 | 0.28 | 5.44 | (4.01) | 12.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ternium SA
For every potential investor in Ternium, whether a beginner or expert, Ternium SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ternium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ternium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ternium SA's price trends.Ternium SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ternium SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ternium SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ternium SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ternium SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ternium SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ternium SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ternium SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ternium SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ternium SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ternium SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ternium SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ternium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ternium SA
The number of cover stories for Ternium SA depends on current market conditions and Ternium SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ternium SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ternium SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ternium SA Short Properties
Ternium SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ternium SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ternium SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ternium SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ternium SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 196.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Additional Tools for Ternium Stock Analysis
When running Ternium SA's price analysis, check to measure Ternium SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ternium SA is operating at the current time. Most of Ternium SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ternium SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ternium SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ternium SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.