United Airlines Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| UAL Stock | USD 107.76 0.02 0.02% |
United Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although United Airlines' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of United Airlines' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of United Airlines fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of United Airlines' share price is approaching 49. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling United Airlines, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.083 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1064 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.3121 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.2363 | Wall Street Target Price 138.4792 |
Using United Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Airlines Holdings from the perspective of United Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Airlines using United Airlines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Airlines' stock price.
United Airlines Short Interest
An investor who is long United Airlines may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about United Airlines and may potentially protect profits, hedge United Airlines with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 92.8825 | Short Percent 0.0452 | Short Ratio 2.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.5 M | 50 Day MA 107.0082 |
United Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of United Airlines Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.39.United Airlines Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to United Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Airlines Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of United Airlines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about United Airlines.
United Airlines Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
United Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Airlines Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Airlines' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of United Airlines Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.39. United Airlines after-hype prediction price | USD 107.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Airlines to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Airlines Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With United Airlines trading at USD 107.76, that is roughly USD 0.0512 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Airlines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Airlines Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Airlines' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United Airlines' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United Airlines stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Airlines' open interest, investors have to compare it to United Airlines' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Airlines is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
United Airlines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Airlines Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of United Airlines Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96, mean absolute percentage error of 6.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Airlines | United Airlines Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United Airlines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 101.73 and 106.81, respectively. We have considered United Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.8202 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9579 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 121.3879 |
Predictive Modules for United Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Airlines Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Airlines After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Airlines' historical news coverage. United Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 105.24 and 110.28, respectively. We have considered United Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Airlines is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Airlines Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Airlines Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.54 | 0.49 | 0.21 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
107.76 | 107.76 | 0.00 |
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United Airlines Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January United Airlines Holdings is traded for 107.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. United is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 120.38%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on United Airlines is about 283.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.97. About 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of United Airlines was at this time reported as 46.73. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.2. United Airlines Holdings last dividend was issued on the 7th of January 2008. The entity had 4:1 split on the 21st of May 1996. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Airlines to cross-verify your projections.United Airlines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how United Airlines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DAL | Delta Air Lines | 2.19 | 6 per month | 1.99 | 0.04 | 4.16 | (4.22) | 9.73 | |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | (2.11) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.00 | (1.49) | 10.40 | |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake | 3.24 | 18 per month | 1.04 | 0.13 | 2.58 | (1.96) | 4.99 | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group | 0.16 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.30 | 3.92 | (2.24) | 8.49 | |
| EME | EMCOR Group | (2.11) | 22 per month | 3.53 | 0 | 4.29 | (3.80) | 24.07 | |
| OTIS | Otis Worldwide Corp | 1.86 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.69 | (1.64) | 5.07 | |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab USA | (2.11) | 25 per month | 4.89 | 0.08 | 10.40 | (9.47) | 26.15 | |
| XYL | Xylem Inc | 2.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.68 | (1.74) | 8.37 | |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand | 3.24 | 15 per month | 1.42 | 0.04 | 3.32 | (2.52) | 8.77 | |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | 2.15 | 35 per month | 3.24 | 0.06 | 4.01 | (5.84) | 14.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Airlines
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Airlines' price trends.United Airlines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Airlines Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Airlines Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Variance | 6.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Airlines
The number of cover stories for United Airlines depends on current market conditions and United Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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United Airlines Short Properties
United Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when United Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Airlines Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 327 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Airlines to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Airlines. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.083 | Earnings Share 10.2 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 | Return On Assets |
The market value of United Airlines Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.