Upbound Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UPBD Stock | 18.90 0.30 1.61% |
Upbound Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Upbound stock prices and determine the direction of Upbound Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Upbound's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Upbound's share price is at 50. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Upbound, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Upbound hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Upbound Group from the perspective of Upbound response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Upbound Group on the next trading day is expected to be 18.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.16. Upbound after-hype prediction price | USD 18.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Upbound to cross-verify your projections. Upbound Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Upbound price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Upbound using various technical indicators. When you analyze Upbound charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Upbound Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Upbound Group on the next trading day is expected to be 18.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Upbound Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Upbound's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Upbound Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Upbound | Upbound Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Upbound Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Upbound's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Upbound's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.38 and 21.42, respectively. We have considered Upbound's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Upbound stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Upbound stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7173 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0073 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.336 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.16 |
Predictive Modules for Upbound
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Upbound Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Upbound After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Upbound at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Upbound or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Upbound, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Upbound Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Upbound's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Upbound's historical news coverage. Upbound's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.38 and 21.42, respectively. We have considered Upbound's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Upbound is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Upbound Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Upbound Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Upbound is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Upbound backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Upbound, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.90 | 18.90 | 0.00 |
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Upbound Hype Timeline
Upbound Group is at this time traded for 18.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Upbound is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Upbound is about 252000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.90. About 95.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.57. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Upbound Group last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2025. The entity had 5:2 split on the 2nd of September 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Upbound to cross-verify your projections.Upbound Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Upbound's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Upbound's future price movements. Getting to know how Upbound's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Upbound may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YALA | Yalla Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.27 | (3.20) | 14.49 | |
| HKD | AMTD Digital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 4.79 | (6.90) | 16.22 | |
| PRO | PROS Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.26 | (0.17) | 0.56 | |
| FSLY | Fastly Class A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.09 | 0.05 | 5.70 | (5.51) | 44.62 | |
| PDFS | PDF Solutions | (0.01) | 6 per month | 2.81 | 0.05 | 4.24 | (5.12) | 12.12 | |
| CRCT | Cricut Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.60 | (4.95) | 11.37 | |
| SEMR | Semrush Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.42 | 0.11 | 1.36 | (3.41) | 74.38 | |
| GCT | GigaCloud Technology Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.72 | 0.13 | 6.24 | (5.45) | 39.06 | |
| TASK | Taskus Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.20 | (3.11) | 10.92 | |
| KARO | Karooooo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.08 | 5.56 | (2.84) | 10.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Upbound
For every potential investor in Upbound, whether a beginner or expert, Upbound's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Upbound Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Upbound. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Upbound's price trends.Upbound Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Upbound stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Upbound could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Upbound by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Upbound Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Upbound stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Upbound shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Upbound stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Upbound Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Upbound Risk Indicators
The analysis of Upbound's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Upbound's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting upbound stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Upbound
The number of cover stories for Upbound depends on current market conditions and Upbound's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Upbound is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Upbound's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Upbound Short Properties
Upbound's future price predictability will typically decrease when Upbound's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Upbound Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Upbound's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Upbound's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Upbound to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Upbound diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Upbound. If investors know Upbound will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Upbound data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Upbound Group's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Upbound's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Upbound's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Upbound's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Upbound's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Upbound is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Upbound's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.