United Parcel Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UPS Stock | USD 100.78 0.68 0.68% |
United Parcel Service's Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The Simple Exponential Smoothing model projects United Parcel at 100.78 for the next trading day, at the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts United Parcel at 100.78 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 89.61 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks United Parcel's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Parcel | United Parcel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for United Parcel defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The projected band runs from roughly 98.69 on the downside to about 102.87 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for United Parcel stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9165 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2612 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4935 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Parcel
Bollinger Bands applied to United Parcel Stock price data measure how far United Parcel has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to United Parcel's price data.United Parcel Related Equities
United Parcel's market space within the Industrials space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Growth rate gaps between United Parcel and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Parcel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for United Parcel quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in United Parcel.
United Parcel Risk Indicators
Analyzing United Parcel's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in United Parcel helps place recent price behavior in context.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
United Parcel Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to United Parcel Service matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 850 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.89 billion |