Velocity Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VEL Stock | USD 19.39 0.26 1.32% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Velocity Financial Llc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.35. Velocity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Velocity Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Velocity Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Velocity Financial fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength indicator of Velocity Financial's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.485 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.62 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.7033 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5667 | Wall Street Target Price 21.6667 |
Using Velocity Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Velocity Financial Llc from the perspective of Velocity Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Velocity Financial using Velocity Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Velocity using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Velocity Financial's stock price.
Velocity Financial Implied Volatility | 1.25 |
Velocity Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Velocity Financial Llc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Velocity Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Velocity Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Velocity Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Velocity Financial Llc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.35. Velocity Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 19.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velocity Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Velocity contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Velocity Financial Llc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0781% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Velocity Financial trading at USD 19.39, that is roughly USD 0.0151 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Velocity Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Velocity Financial Llc options at the current volatility level of 1.25%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Velocity Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Velocity Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Velocity Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Velocity Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Velocity Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Velocity Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Velocity Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Velocity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Velocity Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Velocity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Velocity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Velocity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Velocity Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Velocity Financial Llc on the next trading day is expected to be 19.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Velocity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Velocity Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Velocity Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Velocity Financial | Velocity Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Velocity Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Velocity Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Velocity Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.68 and 21.10, respectively. We have considered Velocity Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Velocity Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Velocity Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8941 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0113 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2189 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.35 |
Predictive Modules for Velocity Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Velocity Financial Llc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Velocity Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Velocity Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Velocity Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Velocity Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Velocity Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Velocity Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Velocity Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Velocity Financial's historical news coverage. Velocity Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.72 and 21.14, respectively. We have considered Velocity Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Velocity Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Velocity Financial Llc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Velocity Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Velocity Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Velocity Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Velocity Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.71 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 15 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.39 | 19.43 | 0.21 |
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Velocity Financial Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Velocity Financial Llc is traded for 19.39. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Velocity is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Velocity Financial is about 306.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.43. The company reported the last year's revenue of 482.78 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 68.47 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 165.55 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velocity Financial to cross-verify your projections.Velocity Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Velocity Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Velocity Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Velocity Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Velocity Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MBWM | Mercantile Bank | 0.48 | 10 per month | 1.21 | 0.09 | 3.78 | (2.55) | 6.66 | |
| OPY | Oppenheimer Holdings | 2.58 | 6 per month | 1.35 | 0.09 | 3.11 | (2.18) | 8.08 | |
| NBN | Northeast Bancorp | (0.28) | 11 per month | 2.19 | 0.1 | 4.10 | (4.25) | 12.35 | |
| NCDL | Nuveen Churchill Direct | (0.18) | 16 per month | 1.25 | (0.03) | 2.17 | (1.80) | 6.20 | |
| CCNE | CNB Financial | 0.44 | 7 per month | 0.95 | 0.08 | 3.12 | (1.55) | 5.21 | |
| AMTB | Amerant Bancorp | 0.75 | 19 per month | 1.84 | 0.08 | 3.95 | (3.75) | 7.58 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | 0.49 | 8 per month | 2.89 | 0.04 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | 0.80 | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.11 | 2.88 | (1.66) | 10.57 | |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corp | (0.06) | 6 per month | 1.31 | (0.06) | 1.94 | (1.84) | 6.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Velocity Financial
For every potential investor in Velocity, whether a beginner or expert, Velocity Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Velocity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Velocity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Velocity Financial's price trends.Velocity Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Velocity Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Velocity Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Velocity Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Velocity Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Velocity Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Velocity Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Velocity Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Velocity Financial Llc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1990.53 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.67) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.26) |
Velocity Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Velocity Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Velocity Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting velocity stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Velocity Financial
The number of cover stories for Velocity Financial depends on current market conditions and Velocity Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Velocity Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Velocity Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Velocity Financial Short Properties
Velocity Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Velocity Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Velocity Financial Llc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Velocity Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Velocity Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velocity Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Velocity Financial. If investors know Velocity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Velocity Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.485 | Earnings Share 2.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.623 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Velocity Financial Llc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Velocity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Velocity Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Velocity Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Velocity Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Velocity Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Velocity Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Velocity Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Velocity Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.