Victory Bancorp OTC Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

VTYB Stock  USD 21.05  0.05  0.24%   
Victory OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Victory Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of The Victory Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Victory Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Victory Bancorp's share price is below 20 . This entails that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Victory Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Victory Bancorp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Victory Bancorp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Victory Bancorp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Victory Bancorp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Victory Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate signals. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Victory Bancorp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Victory Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Victory Bancorp from the perspective of Victory Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Victory Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.26.

Victory Bancorp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.71  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Victory Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.

Victory Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Victory price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Victory using various technical indicators. When you analyze Victory charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Victory Bancorp price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Victory Bancorp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of The Victory Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Victory OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Victory Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Victory Bancorp OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Victory Bancorp  Victory Bancorp Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Victory Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Victory Bancorp's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Victory Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.18 and 21.21, respectively. We have considered Victory Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.05
20.20
Expected Value
21.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Victory Bancorp otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Victory Bancorp otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1738
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3269
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0169
SAESum of the absolute errors20.2649
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as The Victory Bancorp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Victory Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Victory Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Victory Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.7020.7121.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.9216.9323.16
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.5319.0620.60
Details

Victory Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Victory Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Victory Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Victory Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Victory Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Victory Bancorp's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Victory Bancorp's historical news coverage. Victory Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.70 and 21.72, respectively. We have considered Victory Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.05
20.71
After-hype Price
21.72
Upside
Victory Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Victory Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Victory Bancorp OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Victory Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Victory Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Victory Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.26 
1.01
  0.34 
  0.09 
15 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 15 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.05
20.71
1.62 
76.52  
Notes

Victory Bancorp Hype Timeline

Victory Bancorp is at this time traded for 21.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Victory is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.71. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 76.52%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.62%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Victory Bancorp is about 277.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.96. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.16. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Victory Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 15 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Victory Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.

Victory Bancorp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Victory Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Victory Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Victory Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Victory Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Victory Bancorp

For every potential investor in Victory, whether a beginner or expert, Victory Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Victory OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Victory. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Victory Bancorp's price trends.

Victory Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Victory Bancorp otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Victory Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Victory Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Victory Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Victory Bancorp otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Victory Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Victory Bancorp otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Victory Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Victory Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Victory Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Victory Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting victory otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Victory Bancorp

The number of cover stories for Victory Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Victory Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Victory Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Victory Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Victory OTC Stock

Victory Bancorp financial ratios help investors to determine whether Victory OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Victory with respect to the benefits of owning Victory Bancorp security.