Ardagh Metal Packaging Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.83
| AMBP Stock | USD 3.69 0.01 0.27% |
Ardagh |
Ardagh Metal Target Price Odds to finish below 3.83
The tendency of Ardagh Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 3.83 after 90 days |
| 3.69 | 90 days | 3.83 | about 76.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ardagh Metal to stay under $ 3.83 after 90 days from now is about 76.3 (This Ardagh Metal Packaging probability density function shows the probability of Ardagh Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ardagh Metal Packaging price to stay between its current price of $ 3.69 and $ 3.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ardagh Metal has a beta of 0.75. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ardagh Metal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ardagh Metal Packaging will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ardagh Metal Packaging has an alpha of 0.0097, implying that it can generate a 0.009739 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ardagh Metal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ardagh Metal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardagh Metal Packaging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ardagh Metal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ardagh Metal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ardagh Metal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ardagh Metal Packaging, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ardagh Metal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0098 |
Ardagh Metal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ardagh Metal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ardagh Metal Packaging can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.81 B. Net Loss for the year was (50 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 593 M. | |
| Ardagh Metal has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ardagh Metal Packaging to participate in a fireside chat at the Citi Basic Materials Conference |
Ardagh Metal Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ardagh Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ardagh Metal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ardagh Metal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 597.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 434 M |
Ardagh Metal Technical Analysis
Ardagh Metal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ardagh Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ardagh Metal Packaging. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ardagh Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ardagh Metal Predictive Forecast Models
Ardagh Metal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ardagh Metal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ardagh Metal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ardagh Metal Packaging
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ardagh Metal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ardagh Metal Packaging help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.81 B. Net Loss for the year was (50 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 593 M. | |
| Ardagh Metal has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ardagh Metal Packaging to participate in a fireside chat at the Citi Basic Materials Conference |
Additional Tools for Ardagh Stock Analysis
When running Ardagh Metal's price analysis, check to measure Ardagh Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardagh Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Ardagh Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardagh Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardagh Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.