Caledonia Mining Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.93
| CMCL Stock | USD 10.02 0.28 2.72% |
Caledonia |
Caledonia Mining Target Price Odds to finish below 9.93
The tendency of Caledonia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.93 or more in 90 days |
| 10.02 | 90 days | 9.93 | about 5.64 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caledonia Mining to drop to $ 9.93 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.64 (This Caledonia Mining probability density function shows the probability of Caledonia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caledonia Mining price to stay between $ 9.93 and its current price of $10.02 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Caledonia Mining has a beta of 0.43 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Caledonia Mining average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Caledonia Mining will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Caledonia Mining has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Caledonia Mining Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Caledonia Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caledonia Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caledonia Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caledonia Mining Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caledonia Mining is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caledonia Mining's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caledonia Mining, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caledonia Mining within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.48 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Caledonia Mining Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caledonia Mining for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caledonia Mining can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Caledonia Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Caledonia Mining has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 138.68 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 62.72 M. | |
| Caledonia Mining has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Caledonia Mining Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caledonia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caledonia Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caledonia Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.7 M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Caledonia Mining's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caledonia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caledonia Mining. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caledonia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caledonia Mining Predictive Forecast Models
Caledonia Mining's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caledonia Mining's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caledonia Mining's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caledonia Mining
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caledonia Mining for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caledonia Mining help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Caledonia Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Caledonia Mining has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 138.68 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 62.72 M. | |
| Caledonia Mining has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Caledonia Mining Backtesting, Caledonia Mining Valuation, Caledonia Mining Correlation, Caledonia Mining Hype Analysis, Caledonia Mining Volatility, Caledonia Mining History as well as Caledonia Mining Performance. For more information on how to buy Caledonia Stock please use our How to buy in Caledonia Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caledonia Mining. If investors know Caledonia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caledonia Mining listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 0.48 | Revenue Per Share 8.621 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.14 |
The market value of Caledonia Mining is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caledonia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caledonia Mining's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caledonia Mining's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caledonia Mining's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caledonia Mining's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caledonia Mining's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caledonia Mining is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caledonia Mining's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.