First Business Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 48.95
| FBIZ Stock | USD 51.47 0.99 1.96% |
First |
First Business Target Price Odds to finish below 48.95
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 48.95 or more in 90 days |
| 51.47 | 90 days | 48.95 | about 91.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Business to drop to $ 48.95 or more in 90 days from now is about 91.91 (This First Business Financial probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Business Financial price to stay between $ 48.95 and its current price of $51.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.98 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.26 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Business will likely underperform. Additionally First Business Financial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Business Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Business
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Business Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Business Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Business is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Business' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Business Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Business within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
First Business Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Business for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Business Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Business has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 20th of November 2024 First Business paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1000 shares by Lorenz William Kent of First Business at 49.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
First Business Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 139.5 M |
First Business Technical Analysis
First Business' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Business Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Business Predictive Forecast Models
First Business' time-series forecasting models is one of many First Business' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Business' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Business Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Business for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Business Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Business has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 20th of November 2024 First Business paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1000 shares by Lorenz William Kent of First Business at 49.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Business' price analysis, check to measure First Business' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Business is operating at the current time. Most of First Business' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Business' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Business' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Business to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.