First Business Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

First Business Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for First Business is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Business Financial value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First Business Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Business Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 57.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07, mean absolute percentage error of 1.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.03.

First Business Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest First Business

First Business Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

First Business Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Business stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Business stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Business Financial. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Business. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Business

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Business Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 54.75 56.36 57.97 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 50.73 61.13 62.74 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 53.18 55.73 58.28 Details

5 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 55.87 61.40 68.15 Details

First Business After-Hype Price Density Analysis

First Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

First Business Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

First Business Hype Timeline

First Business Financial is currently traded for 56.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 56.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on First Business is about 621.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.42. About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.36. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Business Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.89. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.07. The firm last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. First Business had 2:1 split on the 31st of August 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Business to cross-verify your projections.

First Business Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for First Business

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Business' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Business' price trends.

First Business Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Business Market Strength Events

First Business Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for First Business

First Business Short Properties

Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis