Magnolia Oil Gas Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.03
| MGY Stock | USD 28.19 0.60 2.08% |
Magnolia |
Magnolia Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 25.03
The tendency of Magnolia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 25.03 or more in 90 days |
| 28.19 | 90 days | 25.03 | about 32.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Magnolia Oil to drop to $ 25.03 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.01 (This Magnolia Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Magnolia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Magnolia Oil Gas price to stay between $ 25.03 and its current price of $28.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.33 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Magnolia Oil will likely underperform. Additionally Magnolia Oil Gas has an alpha of 0.0836, implying that it can generate a 0.0836 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Magnolia Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Magnolia Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magnolia Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Magnolia Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Magnolia Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Magnolia Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Magnolia Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Magnolia Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Magnolia Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Magnolia Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Magnolia Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is There An Opportunity With Magnolia Oil Gas Corporations 44 percent Undervaluation |
Magnolia Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Magnolia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Magnolia Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magnolia Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 188.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 401.1 M |
Magnolia Oil Technical Analysis
Magnolia Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Magnolia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Magnolia Oil Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Magnolia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Magnolia Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Magnolia Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Magnolia Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Magnolia Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Magnolia Oil Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Magnolia Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Magnolia Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is There An Opportunity With Magnolia Oil Gas Corporations 44 percent Undervaluation |
Additional Tools for Magnolia Stock Analysis
When running Magnolia Oil's price analysis, check to measure Magnolia Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magnolia Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Magnolia Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magnolia Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magnolia Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magnolia Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.