Magnolia Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MGY Stock | USD 24.70 0.32 1.31% |
Magnolia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of relative strength index of Magnolia Oil's stock price is slightly above 63. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Magnolia, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.23) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4079 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7517 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5632 | Wall Street Target Price 26.9444 |
Using Magnolia Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Magnolia Oil Gas from the perspective of Magnolia Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Magnolia Oil using Magnolia Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Magnolia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Magnolia Oil's stock price.
Magnolia Oil Short Interest
An investor who is long Magnolia Oil may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Magnolia Oil and may potentially protect profits, hedge Magnolia Oil with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 22.9065 | Short Percent 0.1924 | Short Ratio 9.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.2 M | 50 Day MA 22.602 |
Magnolia Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magnolia Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 25.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.87.Magnolia Oil Gas Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Magnolia Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Magnolia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Magnolia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Magnolia Oil Gas. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Magnolia Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Magnolia Oil.
Magnolia Oil Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
Magnolia Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Magnolia Oil Gas stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Magnolia Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Magnolia Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Magnolia Oil's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magnolia Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 25.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.87. Magnolia Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 24.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magnolia Oil to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Magnolia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Magnolia Oil Gas will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0469% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Magnolia Oil trading at USD 24.7, that is roughly USD 0.0116 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Magnolia Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Magnolia Oil Gas options at the current volatility level of 0.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Magnolia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Magnolia Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Magnolia Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Magnolia Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Magnolia Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Magnolia Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Magnolia Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Magnolia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Magnolia Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Magnolia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Magnolia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Magnolia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Magnolia Oil's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 251.8 M | Current Value 280.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 214.4 M |
Magnolia Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magnolia Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 25.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magnolia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magnolia Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Magnolia Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Magnolia Oil | Magnolia Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Magnolia Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Magnolia Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magnolia Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.30 and 26.72, respectively. We have considered Magnolia Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magnolia Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magnolia Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7862 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.8712 |
Predictive Modules for Magnolia Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magnolia Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Magnolia Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Magnolia Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Magnolia Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Magnolia Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Magnolia Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Magnolia Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Magnolia Oil's historical news coverage. Magnolia Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.97 and 26.43, respectively. We have considered Magnolia Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Magnolia Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Magnolia Oil Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
Magnolia Oil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Magnolia Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Magnolia Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Magnolia Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.70 | 24.70 | 0.00 |
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Magnolia Oil Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Magnolia Oil Gas is traded for 24.70. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.09. Magnolia is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Magnolia Oil is about 360.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.79. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Magnolia Oil was now reported as 10.61. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.46. Magnolia Oil Gas last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magnolia Oil to cross-verify your projections.Magnolia Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Magnolia Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Magnolia Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Magnolia Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Magnolia Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MUR | Murphy Oil | 1.47 | 4 per month | 2.64 | 0.07 | 4.80 | (3.78) | 19.80 | |
| CRC | California Resources Corp | 0.15 | 10 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 3.41 | (3.01) | 8.01 | |
| VAL | Valaris | 1.47 | 4 per month | 2.34 | 0.08 | 3.95 | (3.39) | 20.91 | |
| VVV | Valvoline | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.38 | (2.97) | 8.27 | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | (0.14) | 23 per month | 2.05 | 0.04 | 3.10 | (4.01) | 9.03 | |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes SA | (0.14) | 6 per month | 2.35 | 0.15 | 3.92 | (2.79) | 13.99 | |
| CNX | CNX Resources Corp | 0.31 | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.1 | 3.38 | (2.77) | 8.32 | |
| AROC | Archrock | 1.47 | 18 per month | 1.34 | 0.08 | 2.65 | (2.16) | 6.67 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | (0.32) | 9 per month | 3.34 | 0.05 | 6.59 | (5.32) | 26.68 | |
| VIST | Vista Oil Gas | 0.46 | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.20 | 6.23 | (3.43) | 23.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Magnolia Oil
For every potential investor in Magnolia, whether a beginner or expert, Magnolia Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magnolia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magnolia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magnolia Oil's price trends.Magnolia Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magnolia Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magnolia Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magnolia Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Magnolia Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Magnolia Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Magnolia Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Magnolia Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Magnolia Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Magnolia Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Magnolia Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magnolia Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting magnolia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Magnolia Oil
The number of cover stories for Magnolia Oil depends on current market conditions and Magnolia Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Magnolia Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Magnolia Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Magnolia Oil Short Properties
Magnolia Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Magnolia Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Magnolia Oil Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Magnolia Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magnolia Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 186.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 260 M |
Additional Tools for Magnolia Stock Analysis
When running Magnolia Oil's price analysis, check to measure Magnolia Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magnolia Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Magnolia Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magnolia Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magnolia Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magnolia Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.