Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 164.17
| MPC Stock | USD 159.29 0.09 0.06% |
Marathon |
Marathon Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish over 164.17
The tendency of Marathon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 164.17 or more in 90 days |
| 159.29 | 90 days | 164.17 | about 32.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marathon Petroleum to move over $ 164.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.11 (This Marathon Petroleum Corp probability density function shows the probability of Marathon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marathon Petroleum Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 159.29 and $ 164.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Marathon Petroleum has a beta of 0.74. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Marathon Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Marathon Petroleum Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Marathon Petroleum Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Marathon Petroleum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Marathon Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marathon Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marathon Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marathon Petroleum Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marathon Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Marathon Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marathon Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marathon Petroleum Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Marathon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Petrobras Q3 Earnings Beat Despite a Decline in Production |
Marathon Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marathon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marathon Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 409 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.2 B |
Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Marathon Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marathon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marathon Petroleum Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marathon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Marathon Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Marathon Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marathon Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marathon Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Marathon Petroleum Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Marathon Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marathon Petroleum Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Marathon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Petrobras Q3 Earnings Beat Despite a Decline in Production |
Check out Marathon Petroleum Backtesting, Marathon Petroleum Valuation, Marathon Petroleum Correlation, Marathon Petroleum Hype Analysis, Marathon Petroleum Volatility, Marathon Petroleum History as well as Marathon Petroleum Performance. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Petroleum. If investors know Marathon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marathon Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | Dividend Share 3.385 | Earnings Share 12.89 | Revenue Per Share 403.307 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Marathon Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marathon Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marathon Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marathon Petroleum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marathon Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.