Vail Resorts Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 206.30
| MTN Stock | USD 184.24 3.07 1.69% |
Vail |
Vail Resorts Target Price Odds to finish below 206.30
The tendency of Vail Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 206.30 after 90 days |
| 184.24 | 90 days | 206.30 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vail Resorts to stay under $ 206.30 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Vail Resorts probability density function shows the probability of Vail Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vail Resorts price to stay between its current price of $ 184.24 and $ 206.30 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.24 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vail Resorts will likely underperform. Additionally Vail Resorts has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vail Resorts Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vail Resorts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vail Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vail Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vail Resorts Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vail Resorts is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vail Resorts' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vail Resorts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vail Resorts within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Vail Resorts Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vail Resorts for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vail Resorts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vail Resorts has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 24th of October 2024 Vail Resorts paid $ 2.22 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 150 Bn Amusement Parks Global Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033 Introduction of Innovative Attractions and Experiences, Use of AI to Support Digital Transformation, Green Energy Adoprion |
Vail Resorts Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vail Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vail Resorts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vail Resorts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 322.8 M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Vail Resorts' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vail Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vail Resorts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vail Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vail Resorts Predictive Forecast Models
Vail Resorts' time-series forecasting models is one of many Vail Resorts' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vail Resorts' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vail Resorts
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vail Resorts for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vail Resorts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vail Resorts has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 24th of October 2024 Vail Resorts paid $ 2.22 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 150 Bn Amusement Parks Global Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033 Introduction of Innovative Attractions and Experiences, Use of AI to Support Digital Transformation, Green Energy Adoprion |
Check out Vail Resorts Backtesting, Vail Resorts Valuation, Vail Resorts Correlation, Vail Resorts Hype Analysis, Vail Resorts Volatility, Vail Resorts History as well as Vail Resorts Performance. To learn how to invest in Vail Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vail Resorts guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vail Resorts. If investors know Vail will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vail Resorts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.166 | Dividend Share 8.56 | Earnings Share 6.06 | Revenue Per Share 76.191 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Vail Resorts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vail that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vail Resorts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vail Resorts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vail Resorts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vail Resorts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vail Resorts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vail Resorts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vail Resorts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.