Vail Resorts Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MTN Stock | USD 133.07 1.60 1.22% |
Vail Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Vail Resorts' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vail Resorts' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vail Resorts fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Vail Resorts' share price is approaching 43. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Vail Resorts, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.9226 | Wall Street Target Price 174.6364 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (5.17) |
Using Vail Resorts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vail Resorts from the perspective of Vail Resorts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vail Resorts using Vail Resorts' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vail using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vail Resorts' stock price.
Vail Resorts Short Interest
An investor who is long Vail Resorts may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vail Resorts and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vail Resorts with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 149.2695 | Short Percent 0.1729 | Short Ratio 3.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 141.3256 |
Vail Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vail Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 133.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.07.Vail Resorts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vail Resorts' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vail. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vail can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vail Resorts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vail Resorts' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vail Resorts.
Vail Resorts Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Vail Resorts' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vail Resorts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vail Resorts' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vail Resorts stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vail Resorts' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vail Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 133.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.07. Vail Resorts after-hype prediction price | USD 133.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vail Resorts to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vail contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vail Resorts will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vail Resorts trading at USD 133.07, that is roughly USD 0.0424 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vail Resorts' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vail Resorts options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Vail Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vail Resorts' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vail Resorts' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vail Resorts stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vail Resorts' open interest, investors have to compare it to Vail Resorts' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vail Resorts is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vail. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vail Resorts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vail price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vail using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vail charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vail Resorts Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vail Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 133.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59, mean absolute percentage error of 12.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vail Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vail Resorts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vail Resorts Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vail Resorts | Vail Resorts Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vail Resorts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vail Resorts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vail Resorts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 130.83 and 135.31, respectively. We have considered Vail Resorts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vail Resorts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vail Resorts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.951 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2253 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5944 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.07 |
Predictive Modules for Vail Resorts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vail Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vail Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vail Resorts After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vail Resorts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vail Resorts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vail Resorts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vail Resorts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vail Resorts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vail Resorts' historical news coverage. Vail Resorts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 131.39 and 135.87, respectively. We have considered Vail Resorts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vail Resorts is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vail Resorts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vail Resorts Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vail Resorts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vail Resorts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vail Resorts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.24 | 0.56 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
133.07 | 133.63 | 0.42 |
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Vail Resorts Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Vail Resorts is traded for 133.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Vail is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 133.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 55.86%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Vail Resorts is about 672.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 133.12. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.96 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 280 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.32 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vail Resorts to cross-verify your projections.Vail Resorts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vail Resorts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vail Resorts' future price movements. Getting to know how Vail Resorts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vail Resorts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNW | Light Wonder | (0.73) | 4 per month | 1.62 | 0.09 | 3.55 | (2.94) | 14.31 | |
| SGHC | SGHC Limited | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.42 | (5.94) | 26.02 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | (0.90) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.15 | (3.12) | 9.57 | |
| THO | Thor Industries | 4.81 | 10 per month | 2.30 | 0.01 | 3.76 | (3.01) | 14.53 | |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming | (0.60) | 9 per month | 1.18 | 0.04 | 2.56 | (1.98) | 6.83 | |
| LTH | Life Time Group | (0.11) | 19 per month | 1.75 | 0.05 | 3.90 | (3.10) | 9.67 | |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 1.89 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.22 | (2.90) | 8.26 | |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | 0.89 | 9 per month | 3.12 | 0.02 | 5.28 | (4.20) | 25.85 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | (0.11) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.25 | (1.91) | 9.71 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (1.76) | 15 per month | 1.42 | 0.11 | 3.50 | (2.89) | 8.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vail Resorts
For every potential investor in Vail, whether a beginner or expert, Vail Resorts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vail Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vail. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vail Resorts' price trends.Vail Resorts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vail Resorts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vail Resorts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vail Resorts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vail Resorts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vail Resorts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vail Resorts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vail Resorts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vail Resorts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vail Resorts Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vail Resorts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vail Resorts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vail stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vail Resorts
The number of cover stories for Vail Resorts depends on current market conditions and Vail Resorts' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vail Resorts is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vail Resorts' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vail Resorts Short Properties
Vail Resorts' future price predictability will typically decrease when Vail Resorts' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vail Resorts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vail Resorts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vail Resorts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 440.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vail Resorts to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Vail Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vail Resorts guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Will Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector continue expanding? Could Vail diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vail Resorts. Expected growth trajectory for Vail significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Vail Resorts data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | Dividend Share 8.88 | Earnings Share 7.04 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Vail Resorts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vail that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vail Resorts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vail Resorts' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Vail Resorts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vail Resorts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Vail Resorts' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Vail Resorts represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Vail Resorts' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.