Vail Resorts Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MTN Stock | USD 133.96 1.16 0.87% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vail Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 118.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 216.30. Vail Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Vail Resorts' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vail Resorts' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vail Resorts fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of Vail Resorts' share price is above 70 as of today. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Vail, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.0042 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.8851 | Wall Street Target Price 175.2727 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (5.17) |
Using Vail Resorts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vail Resorts from the perspective of Vail Resorts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vail Resorts using Vail Resorts' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vail using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vail Resorts' stock price.
Vail Resorts Short Interest
An investor who is long Vail Resorts may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vail Resorts and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vail Resorts with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 150.7592 | Short Percent 0.1738 | Short Ratio 3.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 145.3604 |
Vail Resorts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vail Resorts' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vail. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vail can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vail Resorts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vail Resorts' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vail Resorts.
Vail Resorts Implied Volatility | 0.33 |
Vail Resorts' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vail Resorts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vail Resorts' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vail Resorts stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vail Resorts' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vail Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 118.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 216.30. Vail Resorts after-hype prediction price | USD 133.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vail Resorts to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Vail Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vail Resorts' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vail Resorts' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vail Resorts stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vail Resorts' open interest, investors have to compare it to Vail Resorts' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vail Resorts is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vail. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vail Resorts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vail price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vail using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vail charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vail Resorts Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Vail Resorts' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1996-07-31 | Previous Quarter 440.3 M | Current Value 581.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 356.3 M |
Vail Resorts Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vail Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 118.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.55, mean absolute percentage error of 19.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 216.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vail Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vail Resorts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vail Resorts Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vail Resorts | Vail Resorts Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vail Resorts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vail Resorts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vail Resorts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 115.67 and 120.43, respectively. We have considered Vail Resorts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vail Resorts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vail Resorts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0954 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.546 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0246 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 216.3034 |
Predictive Modules for Vail Resorts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vail Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vail Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Vail Resorts
For every potential investor in Vail, whether a beginner or expert, Vail Resorts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vail Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vail. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vail Resorts' price trends.Vail Resorts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vail Resorts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vail Resorts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vail Resorts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vail Resorts Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vail Resorts' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vail Resorts' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vail Resorts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vail Resorts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vail Resorts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vail Resorts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vail Resorts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vail Resorts Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vail Resorts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vail Resorts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vail stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Vail Resorts
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vail Resorts position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vail Resorts will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Vail Stock
| 0.46 | MRK | Merck Company | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | KO | Coca Cola | PairCorr |
| 0.37 | DD | Dupont De Nemours | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | TRV | The Travelers Companies | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vail Resorts could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vail Resorts when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vail Resorts - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vail Resorts to buy it.
The correlation of Vail Resorts is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vail Resorts moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vail Resorts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vail Resorts can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vail Resorts to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Vail Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vail Resorts guide.You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vail Resorts. If investors know Vail will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vail Resorts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | Dividend Share 8.88 | Earnings Share 6.95 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Vail Resorts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vail that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vail Resorts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vail Resorts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vail Resorts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vail Resorts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vail Resorts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vail Resorts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vail Resorts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.