Southern First Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.72
| SFST Stock | USD 44.86 0.85 1.93% |
Southern |
Southern First Target Price Odds to finish below 38.72
The tendency of Southern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.72 or more in 90 days |
| 44.86 | 90 days | 38.72 | about 73.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Southern First to drop to $ 38.72 or more in 90 days from now is about 73.08 (This Southern First Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Southern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Southern First Bancshares price to stay between $ 38.72 and its current price of $44.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.91 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.04 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Southern First will likely underperform. Additionally Southern First Bancshares has an alpha of 0.2993, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Southern First Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Southern First
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern First Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southern First's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Southern First Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Southern First is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Southern First's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Southern First Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Southern First within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Southern First Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Southern First for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Southern First Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. Expands Holdings in Southern First Bancshares Inc |
Southern First Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Southern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Southern First's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southern First's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.1 M |
Southern First Technical Analysis
Southern First's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Southern Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Southern First Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Southern Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Southern First Predictive Forecast Models
Southern First's time-series forecasting models is one of many Southern First's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Southern First's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Southern First Bancshares
Checking the ongoing alerts about Southern First for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Southern First Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. Expands Holdings in Southern First Bancshares Inc |
Additional Tools for Southern Stock Analysis
When running Southern First's price analysis, check to measure Southern First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southern First is operating at the current time. Most of Southern First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southern First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southern First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southern First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.