Southern First Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SFST Stock | USD 54.01 4.76 8.10% |
Southern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Southern First's share price is at 54. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Southern First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Southern First hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southern First Bancshares from the perspective of Southern First response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 57.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.95. Southern First after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern First to cross-verify your projections. Southern First Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southern First Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 57.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern First's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern First Stock Forecast Pattern
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Southern First Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern First's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern First's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.19 and 59.63, respectively. We have considered Southern First's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern First stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern First stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4556 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9664 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.9528 |
Predictive Modules for Southern First
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern First Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southern First's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Southern First After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southern First at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southern First or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southern First, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southern First Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southern First's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southern First's historical news coverage. Southern First's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 2.22, respectively. We have considered Southern First's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southern First is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southern First Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southern First Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southern First is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southern First backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southern First, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 2.22 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 6 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
54.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Southern First Hype Timeline
Southern First Bancshares is at this time traded for 54.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.05. Southern is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Southern First is about 1850.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.96. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.2. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Southern First Bancshares has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.31. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 11:10 split on the 30th of January 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern First to cross-verify your projections.Southern First Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southern First's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southern First's future price movements. Getting to know how Southern First's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southern First may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WTBA | West Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.01 | 2.70 | (1.89) | 8.75 | |
| USCB | US Century Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.47 | 0.07 | 3.59 | (2.22) | 11.45 | |
| CARE | Carter Bank and | (0.01) | 11 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.19 | (3.25) | 7.40 | |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.17 | (2.70) | 10.25 | |
| PBFS | Pioneer Bancorp | (0.33) | 16 per month | 1.29 | (0.01) | 2.35 | (1.87) | 8.41 | |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 2.65 | (2.04) | 8.30 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.11 | 4.55 | (2.06) | 8.18 | |
| VBNK | VersaBank | (0.27) | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.20 | 2.90 | (1.67) | 13.41 | |
| FRBA | First Bank | 0.14 | 6 per month | 1.26 | 0.05 | 3.29 | (1.82) | 8.53 | |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group | (0.80) | 22 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 3.50 | (2.24) | 9.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southern First
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern First's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern First's price trends.Southern First Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern First stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern First could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern First by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern First Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern First stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern First shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern First stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern First Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southern First Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern First's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern First's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southern First
The number of cover stories for Southern First depends on current market conditions and Southern First's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southern First is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southern First's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Southern First Short Properties
Southern First's future price predictability will typically decrease when Southern First's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southern First Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southern First's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southern First's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 155.6 M |
Additional Tools for Southern Stock Analysis
When running Southern First's price analysis, check to measure Southern First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southern First is operating at the current time. Most of Southern First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southern First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southern First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southern First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.