Southern First Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SFST Stock | USD 44.86 0.85 1.93% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 43.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.90. Southern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Southern |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Southern First's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 30.4 M | Current Value 34.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 62.8 M |
Southern First Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 43.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern First's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern First Stock Forecast Pattern
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Southern First Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern First's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern First's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.98 and 46.01, respectively. We have considered Southern First's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern First stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern First stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2054 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8673 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0235 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.9032 |
Predictive Modules for Southern First
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern First Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southern First's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Southern First
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern First's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern First's price trends.View Southern First Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern First Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Southern First's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Southern First's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Southern First Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern First stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern First shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern First stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern First Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southern First Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern First's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern First's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Southern Stock Analysis
When running Southern First's price analysis, check to measure Southern First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southern First is operating at the current time. Most of Southern First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southern First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southern First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southern First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.