Upstart Holdings Stock Market Outlook
| UPST Stock | USD 33.49 0.67 2.04% |
Shifts in aggregate news tone over the past 30 days help show whether media coverage is becoming more supportive or more cautious around Upstart Holdings. Roughly 56% of recent sentiment around Upstart Holdings has been mildly defensive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves the current sentiment reading for Upstart Holdings close to neutral currently.
Investor Comfort Level
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment
Upstart Holdings news sentiment reading of 66% (moderately positive) tracks how media and analyst commentary are framing the investment case. Whether that tone sustains depends on how the next batch of company disclosures compares with the current media narrative.
Given a 90-day horizon, with an above-average risk tolerance, the model output for Upstart Holdings is 'Cautious Hold'. The buy or sell analysis for Upstart Holdings is model-driven and reflects defined analytical parameters. Historical return data is balanced with risk-adjusted performance metrics for the chosen horizon.
Upstart |
Run Upstart Holdings Outlook Model
The Upstart signal offers an independent second reference point on Upstart Holdings. Macroaxis declares no financial stake in Upstart Holdings or other equities referenced by this engine.
How This Model Works
The recommendation output for Upstart Holdings is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.
- Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
- Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I am an educated risk taker
- Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates
Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 | Cautious Hold |  |
Market Performance | Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Low | Details | |
Current Valuation | Below Model Estimate | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Minimal | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Upstart Holdings' current outlook reflects a mixed setup, where weak recent performance and soft fundamental readings cloud near-term visibility, while risk metrics have not deteriorated further. The model's 'Cautious Hold' signal aligns with this balance, indicating limited near-term directional conviction despite pockets of underlying improvement. A Cautious Hold signals that risk factors are beginning to outweigh potential upside, warranting closer monitoring. For the selected horizon, Upstart Holdings yields Mean Deviation of 3.54, Standard Deviation of 4.68, and Variance of 21.9, which tilt the risk-reward assessment toward caution.Upstart Holdings' trade recommendation synthesizes price behavior, fundamental drivers, and the analyst sentiment into a structured risk-reward assessment for the selected horizon. To confirm fair pricing on this mid-cap stock in the Financial Services sector, verify all 34 Upstart Holdings fundamentals, including the relationship between the book value per share and number of employees. At a number of shares shorted of 27.87 M, validate Upstart Holdings' broader market performance and downside risk before acting.
Recent Events and Market Context
The events below reflect recent headlines associated with Upstart Holdings. Not all items directly affect the outlook — they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.
Returns Distribution Density
Below is a chart of Upstart Holdings' historical daily returns for Upstart Holdings. The shape shows whether Upstart Holdings' returns tend to be steady or volatile.
| Mean Return | -0.37 | Value At Risk | -8.22 | Potential Upside | 5.90 | Standard Deviation | 4.68 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Risk assessment for Upstart Holdings depends on understanding the likelihood of large price moves. The return distribution chart lays this out for Upstart Holdings.
Top Institutional Investors
At mid-cap scale, institutional coverage and secondary-market liquidity are typically well established. At Upstart Holdings's scale, both institutional and retail traders shape the daily action. Shares outstanding are near 95.7 M. The insider stake is large enough to signal management alignment, which can steady the price during sell-offs.
| Shares | Citadel Advisors Llc | 1.1 M | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2025-09-30 | 1.1 M | Sg Americas Securities, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 1.1 M | Fred Alger Management, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 1 M | T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. | 2025-09-30 | 991.4 K | Azora Capital Lp | 2025-12-31 | 882.2 K | Connor Clark & Lunn Inv Mgmt Ltd | 2025-12-31 | 850.8 K | Wells Fargo & Co | 2025-09-30 | 846.2 K | Ubs Group Ag | 2025-09-30 | 825.3 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-12-31 | 8.1 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-09-30 | 6.9 M |
Cash Flow Accounts
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Dividends Paid | 236K | 12.4M | 8.4M | 9.7M | 6.8M |
Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure
Upstart Holdings remains sensitive to broader stock market conditions in addition to company or sector-specific developments. Portfolio diversification mitigates only part of this exposure. Upstart Holdings reported a Mean Deviation of 3.54 and a Standard Deviation of 4.68.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3808 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0818 |
Fundamentals Vs Peers
A direct comparison of Upstart Holdings' financial ratios to peer averages quantifies competitive positioning. Measuring Upstart Holdings against companies with similar characteristics isolates the idiosyncratic component of its valuation.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Upstart Holdings to competition |
| Fundamentals | Upstart Holdings | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0749 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0174 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.0498 | -1.27 |
| Operating Margin | 0.0888 | -5.51 |
| Current Valuation | 4.52 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 95.71 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 12.90 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 67.92 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 27.87 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earnings | 17.98 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 4.01 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.98 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.08 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 887.14 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 79.16 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 53.6 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 683.97 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 8.35 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.85 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.42 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 21.37 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 8.15 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | -147.72 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 6.02 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.45 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | -20.31 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 43.93 | N/A |
| Number Of Employees | 1.41 K | 18.84 K |
| Trailing Beta | 2.16 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 3.21 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 2.97 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | -357.56 M | 9.33 B |
| Net Asset | 2.97 B | N/A |
Note: Acquisition by Andrea Blankmeyer of 148006 shares of Upstart Holdings subject to Rule 16 b-3 [view details]
Market Momentum
Upstart Holdings neutral RSI of 52 combined with high-beta sensitivity (2.9797) reveals whether current momentum is driven by company-specific demand or market-wide flows. Comparing these readings with sector peers helps separate stock-specific momentum from amplified market moves.
Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight
The model output for Upstart Holdings reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for Upstart Holdings include P/E of 17.98, ROE of 7.49%. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Buy across 15 analysts, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised. 
Upstart Holdings figures are aggregated from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized across reporting formats. The recommendation framework translates the selected risk tolerance and time horizon into a standardized model view using valuation, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage where available. It is informational rather than personalized and does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration limits, or investor-specific mandates.
Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight
Role: Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Finance background: Rifka covers equity valuation and corporate fundamentals across technology, consumer, and service sectors. Her analysis focuses on margin structure, capital allocation, and governance practices.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.