Natural Grocers By Stock Performance

NGVC Stock  USD 27.03  0.04  0.15%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.2, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Natural Grocers' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Natural Grocers is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Natural Grocers by has a negative expected return of -0.0016%. Please make sure to verify Natural Grocers' kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the day median price and relative strength index , to decide if Natural Grocers by performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Natural Grocers by has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, Natural Grocers is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
0.17
Five Day Return
7.52
Year To Date Return
9.43
Ten Year Return
34.34
All Time Return
51.34
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0147
Payout Ratio
0.3217
Forward Dividend Rate
0.48
Dividend Date
2025-09-17
Ex Dividend Date
2025-09-02
 
Natural Grocers dividend paid on 10th of December 2025
12/10/2025
1
Disposition of 5535 shares by David Rooney of Natural Grocers subject to Rule 16b-3
12/12/2025
2
Natural Grocers Adds Two New Organic Flavors to Its House Brand Chocolate Bar Line
02/03/2026
3
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage declares 0.15 dividend
02/05/2026
4
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
02/06/2026
5
Natural Grocers Turns Up the Love with Valentines Hot Deals, Feb. 11-14, 2026
02/09/2026
6
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage One of the Best FMCG Stocks to Invest In According to Analysts
02/10/2026
7
Freedom Capital Initiates Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage With a Buy Heres Why
02/19/2026
8
Acquisition by Isely Charity of 1167 shares of Natural Grocers subject to Rule 16b-3
02/20/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow8.9 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-31 M

Natural Grocers Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,753  in Natural Grocers by on November 30, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (50.00) from holding Natural Grocers by or give up 1.82% of portfolio value over 90 days. Natural Grocers by is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 2.4077% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 21% of stocks are less volatile than Natural, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Natural Grocers is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 3.17 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.0 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of volatility.

Natural Grocers Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Natural Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 27.03 90 days 27.03 
about 17.02
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natural Grocers to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 17.02 (This Natural Grocers by probability density function shows the probability of Natural Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Natural Grocers has a beta of 0.2. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Natural Grocers average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natural Grocers by will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Natural Grocers by has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Natural Grocers Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Natural Grocers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Grocers by. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.6227.0329.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.3333.6336.04
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
25.4827.8830.29
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
49.1454.0059.94
Details

Natural Grocers Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natural Grocers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natural Grocers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natural Grocers by, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natural Grocers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.20
σ
Overall volatility
1.07
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Natural Grocers Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natural Grocers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natural Grocers by can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Freedom Capital Initiates Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage With a Buy Heres Why

Natural Grocers Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natural Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding23.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments17.1 M

Natural Grocers Fundamentals Growth

Natural Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Natural Grocers, and Natural Grocers fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Natural Stock performance.

About Natural Grocers Performance

By analyzing Natural Grocers' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Natural Grocers' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Natural Grocers has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Natural Grocers has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 59.82  60.86 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.08  0.05 
Return On Capital Employed 0.14  0.12 
Return On Assets 0.08  0.05 
Return On Equity 0.25  0.17 

Things to note about Natural Grocers by performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Natural Grocers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Natural Grocers by help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Freedom Capital Initiates Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage With a Buy Heres Why
Evaluating Natural Grocers' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Natural Grocers' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Natural Grocers' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Natural Grocers' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Natural Grocers' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Natural Grocers' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Natural Grocers' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Natural Grocers' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Natural Grocers' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Natural Grocers' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Natural Grocers' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis

When running Natural Grocers' price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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