Natural Grocers By Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| NGVC Stock | USD 45.60 9.35 25.79% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Natural Grocers by is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Natural Grocers buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NGVC positions.
Check out Natural Grocers Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Natural and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Natural Grocers by. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real.
Natural |
Execute Natural Grocers Buy or Sell Advice
The Natural recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Natural Grocers by. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Natural Grocers by or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Natural Grocers' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Solid | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Sell | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Natural Grocers Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Natural Grocers by appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc Reports Q4 EPS of 0. and Revenue of 322.7 Million |
Natural Grocers Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Natural Grocers' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Natural Grocers' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Natural Grocers daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Natural Grocers by price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Natural Grocers returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Natural Grocers.
| Mean Return | 1.03 | Value At Risk | -3.21 | Potential Upside | 6.30 | Standard Deviation | 4.22 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Natural Grocers historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Natural Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Hillsdale Investment Management Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 183.2 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-06-30 | 178.3 K | Bridgeway Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 105.1 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 90.3 K | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2024-06-30 | 88.9 K | Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Advisers, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 87 K | Hussman Strategic Advisors Inc | 2024-09-30 | 84 K | Acuitas Investments, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 83.9 K | Green Alpha Advisors, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 83 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 1.3 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 657 K |
Natural Grocers Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (4.0M) | (371K) | (13.2M) | (5.5M) | (1.4M) | (1.5M) | |
| Change In Cash | 22.3M | (4.9M) | (11.6M) | 6.3M | (9.5M) | (9.0M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 36.9M | 25.6M | 8.2M | 26.5M | 73.8M | 77.4M | |
| Depreciation | 31.2M | 29.6M | 27.9M | 28.9M | 30.9M | 23.5M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 582K | 1.4M | 3.0M | 1.7M | 10.0M | 10.5M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 32.7M | 29.6M | 28.3M | 31.4M | 38.1M | 0.0 | |
| Net Income | 20.0M | 20.6M | 21.4M | 23.2M | 33.9M | 35.6M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 28.5M | 23.7M | 12.0M | 18.3M | 8.9M | 10.6M | |
| Investments | (29.6M) | (27.8M) | (31.1M) | (38.0M) | (34.2M) | (35.9M) | |
| Change Receivables | (315K) | (3.4M) | 30K | (3.0M) | (2.7M) | (2.5M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (5.7M) | 20.9M | (10.7M) | (10.8M) | (9.7M) | (9.2M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 5.4M | 3.1M | 4.8M | 51K | 58.7K | 55.7K |
Natural Grocers Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Natural Grocers or Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Natural Grocers' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Natural stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.77 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Natural Grocers Volatility Alert
Natural Grocers by currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.21 and Jensen Alpha of 0.77. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Natural Grocers' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Natural Grocers' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Natural Grocers Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Natural Grocers' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Natural Grocers' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Natural Grocers and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Natural Grocers or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Natural Grocers' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natural Grocers by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Natural Grocers to competition |
| Fundamentals | Natural Grocers | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.18 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0418 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.04 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.38 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 22.79 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 44.00 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 34.30 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 144.21 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 10.25 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 5.99 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.86 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.24 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 377.27 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 46.98 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 33.94 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 12.04 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.53 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 370.18 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.52 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.02 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 7.36 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 73.76 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.77 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.34 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 6.47 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 19.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 3.23 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.08 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 792.76 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 669.18 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 111.87 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (1.48 M) | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 2500 shares by Richard Halle of Natural Grocers at 27.34 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Natural Grocers Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Natural . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Natural Grocers Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Natural Grocers by? Buying financial instruments such as Natural Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Natural Grocers in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Medical Equipment theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Medical Equipment Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Natural Grocers Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.29 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 1.34 | Revenue Per Share 53.344 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
The market value of Natural Grocers by is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natural Grocers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.