Natural Grocers By Stock Market Outlook
| NGVC Stock | USD 26.43 0.60 2.22% |
About 55% of Natural Grocers' investor base is interested to short. The analysis of current outlook of investing in Natural Grocers by suggests that many traders are impartial regarding Natural Grocers' prospects. The current market sentiment, together with Natural Grocers' historical and current headlines, can help investors time the market. In addition, many technical investors use Natural Grocers by stock news signals to limit their universe of possible portfolio assets.
Comfort Level 45
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Natural Grocers' input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Natural Grocers by.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBearish | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Natural Grocers by is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Natural Grocers buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding NGVC positions.
Execute Natural Grocers Advice
The Natural recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Natural Grocers by. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Natural Grocers by or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Natural Grocers' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Weakest | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Sell | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Natural Grocers by has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.10), Jensen Alpha of (0.37), Total Risk Alpha of (0.53) and Treynor Ratio of (0.43)Our advice module complements current analysts and expert consensus on Natural Grocers by. It analyzes the company potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure Natural Grocers by is not overpriced, please verify all Natural Grocers by fundamentals, including its revenue, current ratio, beta, as well as the relationship between the cash and equivalents and earnings per share . Given that Natural Grocers by has a price to earning of 10.25 X, we recommend you to check Natural Grocers market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Natural Grocers Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from fool.com: Natural Grocers Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript |
Natural Grocers Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Natural Grocers' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Natural Grocers' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Natural Grocers daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Natural Grocers by price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Natural Grocers returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Natural Grocers.
| Mean Return | -0.3 | Value At Risk | -3.47 | Potential Upside | 4.08 | Standard Deviation | 2.26 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Natural Grocers historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Natural Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Empirical Finance, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 48.3 K |
Natural Grocers Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (13.2M) | (5.5M) | (1.4M) | (12.3M) | (14.1M) | (14.8M) | |
| Change In Cash | (11.6M) | 6.3M | (9.5M) | 8.2M | 9.5M | 10.0M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 8.2M | 26.5M | 35.1M | 24.1M | 27.7M | 29.1M | |
| Depreciation | 27.9M | 28.9M | 30.9M | 31.8M | 36.6M | 24.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 3.0M | 1.7M | 2.0M | (34.4M) | (30.9M) | (29.4M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 31.4M | 38.1M | 38.7M | 31.2M | 35.9M | 34.2M | |
| Net Income | 21.4M | 23.2M | 33.9M | 46.4M | 53.4M | 56.1M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 12.0M | 18.3M | 8.9M | 17.1M | 19.7M | 11.1M | |
| Investments | (27.8M) | (31.1M) | (38.0M) | (38.6M) | (34.7M) | (36.5M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (10.7M) | (10.8M) | (11.3M) | (3.8M) | (3.4M) | (3.3M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 9.1M | 9.1M | (31.9M) | (11.0M) | (9.9M) | (9.4M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 5.4M | 3.1M | 4.8M | 51K | 58.7K | 55.7K |
Natural Grocers Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Natural Grocers or Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Natural Grocers' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Natural stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Natural Grocers Volatility Alert
Natural Grocers by exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.32 and kurtosis of -0.09. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Natural Grocers' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Natural Grocers' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Natural Grocers Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Natural Grocers' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Natural Grocers' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Natural Grocers and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Natural Grocers or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Natural Grocers' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natural Grocers by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Natural Grocers to competition |
| Fundamentals | Natural Grocers | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.24 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0572 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.05 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 937.49 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 22.95 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 44.37 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 41.45 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.42 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 10.25 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.93 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.46 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.33 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 445.36 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 93.8 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 46.44 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 12.04 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.53 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 332.02 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.52 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.02 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 8.82 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 55.3 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 6.62 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.88 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 6.47 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 54.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 3.46 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.2 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 730.4 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 670.5 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 149.34 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 9.29 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 5535 shares by David Rooney of Natural Grocers subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Natural Grocers Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Natural . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 47544.43 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.13) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 27.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.36) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.60) |
About Natural Grocers Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Natural Grocers by? Buying financial instruments such as Natural Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Natural Grocers in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Companies specializing in air services and air delivery. The Air theme has 39 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Air Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Natural Grocers Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Will Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector continue expanding? Could Natural diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. Anticipated expansion of Natural directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Natural Grocers data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.25 | Dividend Share 0.46 | Earnings Share 1.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 |
Understanding Natural Grocers by requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Natural's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Natural Grocers' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Natural Grocers' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Natural Grocers' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Natural Grocers should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Natural Grocers' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.