Natural Grocers By Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 27.05
| NGVC Stock | USD 27.05 0.62 2.24% |
Closest to current price Natural long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Natural Grocers Target Price Odds to finish over 27.05
The tendency of Natural Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 27.05 | 90 days | 27.05 | about 55.58 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natural Grocers to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 55.58 (This Natural Grocers by probability density function shows the probability of Natural Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Natural Grocers Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natural Grocers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Grocers by. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natural Grocers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natural Grocers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natural Grocers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natural Grocers by, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natural Grocers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Natural Grocers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natural Grocers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natural Grocers by can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 10th of December 2025 Natural Grocers paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Bring Home the Win with Natural Grocers Big Game Deals |
Natural Grocers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natural Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.1 M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Natural Grocers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natural Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natural Grocers by. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natural Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natural Grocers Predictive Forecast Models
Natural Grocers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Natural Grocers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natural Grocers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natural Grocers by
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natural Grocers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natural Grocers by help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 10th of December 2025 Natural Grocers paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Bring Home the Win with Natural Grocers Big Game Deals |
Check out Natural Grocers Analysis, Natural Grocers Valuation, Natural Grocers Correlation, Natural Grocers Hype Analysis, Natural Grocers Volatility, Natural Grocers Price History as well as Natural Grocers Performance. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Will Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector continue expanding? Could Natural diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. Anticipated expansion of Natural directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Natural Grocers data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.25 | Dividend Share 0.46 | Earnings Share 1.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 |
Understanding Natural Grocers by requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Natural's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Natural Grocers' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Natural Grocers' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Natural Grocers' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Natural Grocers should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Natural Grocers' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.