Natural Grocers By Stock Performance
| NGVC Stock | USD 26.67 0.45 1.72% |
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.02, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Natural Grocers returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Natural Grocers is expected to follow. At this point, Natural Grocers by has a negative expected return of -0.59%. Please make sure to verify Natural Grocers' kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the day median price and period momentum indicator , to decide if Natural Grocers by performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weakest
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days Natural Grocers by has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of conflicting performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain rather sound which may send shares a bit higher in February 2026. The latest tumult may also be a sign of longer-term up-swing for the firm shareholders. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 1 | Five Day Return (1.13) | Year To Date Return 6.15 | Ten Year Return 26.85 | All Time Return 46.81 |
Forward Dividend Yield 0.0147 | Payout Ratio | Forward Dividend Rate 0.48 | Dividend Date 2025-09-17 | Ex Dividend Date 2025-09-02 |
1 | Acquisition by Isely Charity of 1167 shares of Natural Grocers subject to Rule 16b-3 | 10/31/2025 |
2 | Acquisition by Isely Charity of 2000 shares of Natural Grocers subject to Rule 16b-3 | 11/04/2025 |
3 | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Announces Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results | 11/20/2025 |
4 | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Looks Interesting, And Its About To Pay A Dividend | 11/26/2025 |
5 | Get Ahead in 2026 Natural Grocers Shares Key Trends for Living Well | 12/02/2025 |
6 | Deck the Aisles with Natural Grocers Holly Deals Event, Dec. 6-22, 2025 | 12/04/2025 |
| Natural Grocers dividend paid on 10th of December 2025 | 12/10/2025 |
8 | Disposition of 5535 shares by David Rooney of Natural Grocers subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/12/2025 |
9 | Natural Grocers Launches New Organic Essential Oils | 12/16/2025 |
10 | Natural Grocers Expands to Rock Springs, Wyoming | 01/02/2026 |
11 | Natural Grocers Invites Customers to Reset, Recharge and Save During Resolution Reset Week, Jan. 13-17 | 01/07/2026 |
12 | Natural Grocers Expands House Brand With Five New Varieties of Organic Frozen Fruit Smoothie Blends | 01/15/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 8.9 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -31 M |
Natural Grocers Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 3,840 in Natural Grocers by on October 29, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (1,218) from holding Natural Grocers by or give up 31.72% of portfolio value over 90 days. Natural Grocers by is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 2.6801% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 24% of stocks are less volatile than Natural, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Natural Grocers Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Natural Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 26.67 | 90 days | 26.67 | about 67.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natural Grocers to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 67.4 (This Natural Grocers by probability density function shows the probability of Natural Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.02 . This indicates Natural Grocers by market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Natural Grocers is expected to follow. Additionally Natural Grocers by has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Natural Grocers Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natural Grocers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Grocers by. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natural Grocers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natural Grocers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natural Grocers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natural Grocers by, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natural Grocers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.67 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
Natural Grocers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natural Grocers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natural Grocers by can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 10th of December 2025 Natural Grocers paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Natural Grocers Expands House Brand With Five New Varieties of Organic Frozen Fruit Smoothie Blends |
Natural Grocers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natural Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.1 M |
Natural Grocers Fundamentals Growth
Natural Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Natural Grocers, and Natural Grocers fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Natural Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | 0.24 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0572 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.05 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 912.84 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 22.95 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 10.25 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 2.82 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.45 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.33 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 445.36 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 93.8 M | ||||
| Net Income | 46.44 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 12.04 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.53 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 332.02 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 2.52 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 1.02 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 8.82 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 55.3 M | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 1.88 X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 730.4 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 670.5 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 149.34 M | ||||
| Working Capital | 9.29 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 97.33 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 66.54 M | ||||
About Natural Grocers Performance
By analyzing Natural Grocers' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Natural Grocers' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Natural Grocers has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Natural Grocers has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 59.82 | 60.74 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | 0.08 | 0.05 | |
| Return On Capital Employed | 0.14 | 0.12 | |
| Return On Assets | 0.08 | 0.05 | |
| Return On Equity | 0.25 | 0.17 |
Things to note about Natural Grocers by performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natural Grocers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Natural Grocers by help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natural Grocers by generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 10th of December 2025 Natural Grocers paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Natural Grocers Expands House Brand With Five New Varieties of Organic Frozen Fruit Smoothie Blends |
- Analyzing Natural Grocers' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Natural Grocers' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Natural Grocers' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Natural Grocers' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Natural Grocers' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Natural Grocers' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Natural Grocers' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis
When running Natural Grocers' price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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