Citi Trends Stock Price Patterns
| CTRN Stock | USD 45.85 0.95 2.03% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.77) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.875 | Wall Street Target Price 57 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.79) |
Using Citi Trends hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citi Trends from the perspective of Citi Trends response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Citi Trends using Citi Trends' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Citi using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Citi Trends' stock price.
Citi Trends Short Interest
An investor who is long Citi Trends may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Citi Trends and may potentially protect profits, hedge Citi Trends with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 35.6348 | Short Percent 0.0855 | Short Ratio 3.82 | Shares Short Prior Month 512.5 K | 50 Day MA 44.3916 |
Citi Trends Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Citi Trends' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Citi. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Citi can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Citi Trends. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Citi Trends' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Citi Trends.
Citi Trends Implied Volatility | 0.98 |
Citi Trends' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Citi Trends stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Citi Trends' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Citi Trends stock will not fluctuate a lot when Citi Trends' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Citi Trends to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Citi because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Citi Trends after-hype prediction price | USD 45.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Citi contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Citi Trends will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0613% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Citi Trends trading at USD 45.85, that is roughly USD 0.0281 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Citi Trends' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Citi Trends options at the current volatility level of 0.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Citi Trends Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Citi Trends After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Citi Trends at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citi Trends or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citi Trends, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citi Trends Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Citi Trends' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citi Trends' historical news coverage. Citi Trends' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.96 and 48.86, respectively. We have considered Citi Trends' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Citi Trends is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citi Trends is based on 3 months time horizon.
Citi Trends Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citi Trends is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citi Trends backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citi Trends, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.95 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.85 | 45.91 | 0.13 |
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Citi Trends Hype Timeline
Citi Trends is currently traded for 45.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Citi is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 45.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Citi Trends is about 3933.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.87. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 753.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (43.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 314.76 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Citi Trends Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Citi Trends Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citi Trends' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citi Trends' future price movements. Getting to know how Citi Trends' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citi Trends may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GCO | Genesco | (0.59) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.14 | (5.92) | 39.13 | |
| BNED | Barnes Noble Education | 0.23 | 11 per month | 3.67 | 0.03 | 4.80 | (6.31) | 46.03 | |
| JACK | Jack In The | 0.41 | 12 per month | 3.24 | 0.15 | 8.01 | (5.10) | 22.15 | |
| NIU | Niu Technologies | 0.04 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.05 | (7.55) | 15.96 | |
| MPX | Marine Products | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 3.34 | (3.55) | 21.83 | |
| LOCO | El Pollo Loco | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.20 | (3.08) | 7.76 | |
| WEYS | Weyco Group | 0.33 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.56 | (3.08) | 20.30 | |
| EMPD | Empery Digital | 0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.42 | (9.46) | 35.01 | |
| ONEW | Onewater Marine | (0.02) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.92 | (6.54) | 15.61 | |
| DBI | Designer Brands | 0.53 | 10 per month | 3.74 | 0.14 | 10.22 | (6.89) | 57.86 |
Citi Trends Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Citi Trends Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Citi Trends stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Citi Trends, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Citi Trends based on analysis of Citi Trends hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Citi Trends's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Citi Trends's related companies. | 2020 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001389 | 0.001518 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.76 | 0.31 |
Pair Trading with Citi Trends
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Citi Trends position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Citi Trends will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Citi Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Citi Trends could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Citi Trends when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Citi Trends - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Citi Trends to buy it.
The correlation of Citi Trends is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Citi Trends moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Citi Trends moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Citi Trends can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Citi Trends Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Citi Stock, please use our How to Invest in Citi Trends guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Will Specialty Retail sector continue expanding? Could Citi diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citi Trends. Projected growth potential of Citi fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Citi Trends data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (1.97) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Citi Trends requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Citi's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Citi Trends' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Citi Trends' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Citi Trends' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Citi Trends should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Citi Trends' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.