Farmer Bros Co Stock Price Prediction
| FARM Stock | USD 2.23 0.13 6.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.12) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.58) | Wall Street Target Price 5.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.24) |
Using Farmer Bros hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Farmer Bros Co from the perspective of Farmer Bros response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Farmer Bros to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Farmer because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Farmer Bros after-hype prediction price | USD 2.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Farmer |
Farmer Bros After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Farmer Bros at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Farmer Bros or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Farmer Bros, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Farmer Bros Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Farmer Bros' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Farmer Bros' historical news coverage. Farmer Bros' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 6.31, respectively. We have considered Farmer Bros' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Farmer Bros is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Farmer Bros is based on 3 months time horizon.
Farmer Bros Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Farmer Bros is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmer Bros backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Farmer Bros, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 4.09 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.23 | 2.22 | 0.45 |
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Farmer Bros Hype Timeline
Farmer Bros is currently traded for 2.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Farmer is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.22. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.45%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Farmer Bros is about 1964.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.17. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.16. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Farmer Bros has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.63. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.37. The firm last dividend was issued on the 26th of January 2011. Farmer Bros had 10:1 split on the 11th of May 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Farmer Bros Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Farmer Bros Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Farmer Bros' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Farmer Bros' future price movements. Getting to know how Farmer Bros' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Farmer Bros may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BRID | Bridgford Foods | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.52 | (4.87) | 32.90 | |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corp | (1.57) | 4 per month | 1.47 | 0.09 | 2.87 | (1.85) | 11.87 | |
| LWAY | Lifeway Foods | (0.34) | 10 per month | 2.32 | 0.07 | 4.86 | (5.06) | 31.34 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | (1.94) | 9 per month | 1.21 | (0.04) | 2.12 | (1.89) | 9.61 | |
| ARZTY | Aryzta AG PK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.15 | |
| JVA | Coffee Holding Co | (0.04) | 4 per month | 3.99 | 0.1 | 9.03 | (7.80) | 47.22 | |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.53 | 0.01 | 3.43 | (2.05) | 9.59 | |
| RGF | Real Good Food | 0.09 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.50 | (9.09) | 41.41 | |
| SENEB | Seneca Foods Corp | 0.00 | 3 per month | 1.24 | 0.05 | 3.42 | (2.64) | 11.90 | |
| BRBR | Bellring Brands LLC | 1.89 | 7 per month | 0.42 | 0.33 | 2.61 | (1.47) | 4.71 | |
| POST | Post Holdings | (0.52) | 9 per month | 0.90 | (0.11) | 1.74 | (1.54) | 3.27 |
Farmer Bros Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Farmer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Farmer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Farmer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Farmer Bros Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Farmer Bros stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Farmer Bros Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Farmer Bros based on analysis of Farmer Bros hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Farmer Bros's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Farmer Bros's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 1.15 | 1.26 | Dividend Yield | 0.0274 | 0.0288 |
Story Coverage note for Farmer Bros
The number of cover stories for Farmer Bros depends on current market conditions and Farmer Bros' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Farmer Bros is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Farmer Bros' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Farmer Bros Short Properties
Farmer Bros' future price predictability will typically decrease when Farmer Bros' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Farmer Bros Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Farmer Bros' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Farmer Bros' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.8 M |
Check out Farmer Bros Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmer Bros. If investors know Farmer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Farmer Bros listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.37) | Revenue Per Share 16.318 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.039 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.19) |
The market value of Farmer Bros is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Farmer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Farmer Bros' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Farmer Bros' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Farmer Bros' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Farmer Bros' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmer Bros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmer Bros is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmer Bros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.