Mp Materials Corp Stock Price Patterns
| MP Stock | USD 58.77 3.39 5.45% |
Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.56) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0683 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.29) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6285 | Wall Street Target Price 79.0769 |
Using MP Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MP Materials Corp from the perspective of MP Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MP Materials using MP Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MP Materials using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MP Materials' stock price.
MP Materials Short Interest
An investor who is long MP Materials may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about MP Materials and may potentially protect profits, hedge MP Materials with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 53.5379 | Short Percent 0.1506 | Short Ratio 3.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 24.1 M | 50 Day MA 59.739 |
MP Materials Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MP Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MP Materials. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MP Materials can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MP Materials Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MP Materials' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MP Materials.
MP Materials Implied Volatility | 0.81 |
MP Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MP Materials Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MP Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MP Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when MP Materials' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MP Materials to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MP Materials because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MP Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 59.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MP Materials contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MP Materials Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0506% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With MP Materials trading at USD 58.77, that is roughly USD 0.0298 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MP Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring MP Materials Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.81%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
MP Materials | Build AI portfolio with MP Materials Stock |
MP Materials After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MP Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MP Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MP Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MP Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MP Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MP Materials' historical news coverage. MP Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.29 and 63.89, respectively. We have considered MP Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MP Materials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MP Materials Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
MP Materials Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MP Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MP Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MP Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 4.80 | 0.32 | 3.02 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.77 | 59.09 | 0.54 |
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MP Materials Hype Timeline
As of February 1, 2026 MP Materials Corp is listed for 58.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -3.02. MP Materials is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 59.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on MP Materials is about 22.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.75. The company generated the yearly revenue of 203.85 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (65.42 M) with gross profit of 26.74 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out MP Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MP Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MP Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MP Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how MP Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MP Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining | (0.08) | 10 per month | 3.70 | 0.11 | 6.39 | (5.83) | 15.03 | |
| CDE | Coeur Mining | 0.26 | 10 per month | 4.41 | 0.06 | 6.67 | (5.71) | 16.58 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 1.42 | 8 per month | 2.69 | 0.16 | 6.40 | (5.54) | 14.55 | |
| EQX | Equinox Gold Corp | 4.22 | 20 per month | 3.37 | 0.13 | 7.15 | (5.39) | 20.51 | |
| ALB | Albemarle Corp | (1.05) | 11 per month | 3.00 | 0.27 | 6.48 | (5.81) | 14.41 | |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | 0.07 | 4.42 | (3.55) | 10.48 | |
| SUZ | Suzano Papel e | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.03 | 1.99 | (1.79) | 9.66 | |
| RGLD | Royal Gold | (222.84) | 23 per month | 2.10 | 0.26 | 4.51 | (3.06) | 16.40 | |
| WLK | Westlake Chemical | 1.82 | 8 per month | 2.68 | (0.0002) | 4.69 | (4.13) | 11.29 | |
| MOS | The Mosaic | 0.22 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.05 | (4.97) | 11.69 |
MP Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MP Materials price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MP Materials using various technical indicators. When you analyze MP Materials charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MP Materials Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MP Materials stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MP Materials Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MP Materials based on analysis of MP Materials hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MP Materials's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MP Materials's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 5.3 | 11.49 | 10.34 | 10.85 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 234.07 | 145.53 | 130.97 | 124.15 |
Pair Trading with MP Materials
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if MP Materials position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in MP Materials will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against MP Materials Stock
| 0.43 | ZFI1 | ZURICH INSURANCE | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | W9C | Constellation Software | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | ITB | IMPERIAL TOBACCO | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to MP Materials could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace MP Materials when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back MP Materials - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling MP Materials Corp to buy it.
The correlation of MP Materials is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as MP Materials moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if MP Materials Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for MP Materials can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for MP Materials Stock Analysis
When running MP Materials' price analysis, check to measure MP Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MP Materials is operating at the current time. Most of MP Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MP Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MP Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MP Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.