Penn National Gaming Stock Price Patterns
| PENN Stock | USD 12.05 0.29 2.47% |
Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.089 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2767 | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.36) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9038 | Wall Street Target Price 18.4444 |
Using Penn National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penn National Gaming from the perspective of Penn National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penn National using Penn National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penn using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penn National's stock price.
Penn National Short Interest
An investor who is long Penn National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Penn National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Penn National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 16.412 | Short Percent 0.1582 | Short Ratio 5.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.9 M | 50 Day MA 13.9624 |
Penn National Gaming Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Penn National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Penn. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penn can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penn National Gaming. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penn National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Penn National.
Penn National Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Penn National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penn National Gaming stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penn National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penn National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penn National's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Penn National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Penn because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Penn National after-hype prediction price | USD 11.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penn contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penn National Gaming will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Penn National trading at USD 12.05, that is roughly USD 0.005121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penn National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penn National Gaming options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Penn National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Penn National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penn National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penn National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Penn National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Penn National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penn National's historical news coverage. Penn National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.96 and 14.78, respectively. We have considered Penn National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Penn National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penn National Gaming is based on 3 months time horizon.
Penn National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penn National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penn National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penn National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.95 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.05 | 11.87 | 0.50 |
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Penn National Hype Timeline
Penn National Gaming is at this time traded for 12.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Penn is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.5%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Penn National is about 2920.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.07. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.8. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Penn National Gaming has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.78. The entity recorded a loss per share of 6.07. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Penn National had 4423:1000 split on the 4th of November 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Penn National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Penn National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penn National's future price movements. Getting to know how Penn National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penn National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VAC | Marriot Vacations Worldwide | 0.52 | 7 per month | 1.80 | 0.13 | 4.80 | (3.79) | 12.67 | |
| SBET | Sharplink Gaming | (0.12) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.50 | (9.55) | 23.02 | |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | (2.74) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.71 | (3.39) | 22.05 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | (0.06) | 17 per month | 1.40 | 0.13 | 3.92 | (2.80) | 9.77 | |
| SHOO | Steven Madden | (0.34) | 11 per month | 3.31 | 0.01 | 4.06 | (3.64) | 16.62 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | 0.74 | 8 per month | 3.46 | 0.01 | 5.52 | (6.52) | 16.17 | |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory | 1.88 | 10 per month | 1.77 | 0.19 | 4.44 | (2.77) | 9.92 | |
| BRSL | Brightstar Lottery PLC | (0.1) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.42 | (2.32) | 8.03 | |
| HBI | Hanesbrands | 0.24 | 10 per month | 1.49 | (0) | 2.38 | (2.35) | 7.22 | |
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.99 | 25 per month | 3.01 | 0.08 | 3.86 | (3.34) | 17.11 |
Penn National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Penn price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penn using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penn charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Penn National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Penn National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Penn National Gaming, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Penn National based on analysis of Penn National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Penn National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Penn National's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 78.21 | 82.12 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 12.26 | 19.72 |
Pair Trading with Penn National
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Penn National position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Penn National will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Penn Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Penn National could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Penn National when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Penn National - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Penn National Gaming to buy it.
The correlation of Penn National is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Penn National moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Penn National Gaming moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Penn National can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector continue expanding? Could Penn diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. Anticipated expansion of Penn directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Penn National data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.089 | Earnings Share (6.07) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Penn National Gaming requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Penn's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Penn National's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Penn National's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Penn National's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Penn National should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Penn National's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.