Freightcar America Stock Price Prediction
| RAIL Stock | USD 9.45 0.20 2.07% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
67
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.235 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.735 | Wall Street Target Price 14.875 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.08 |
Using Freightcar America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Freightcar America from the perspective of Freightcar America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Freightcar America to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Freightcar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Freightcar America after-hype prediction price | USD 9.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Freightcar |
Freightcar America After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Freightcar America at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Freightcar America or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Freightcar America, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Freightcar America Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Freightcar America's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Freightcar America's historical news coverage. Freightcar America's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.60 and 16.90, respectively. We have considered Freightcar America's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Freightcar America is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Freightcar America is based on 3 months time horizon.
Freightcar America Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Freightcar America is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Freightcar America backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Freightcar America, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.87 | 7.65 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.45 | 9.25 | 2.12 |
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Freightcar America Hype Timeline
Freightcar America is at this time traded for 9.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Freightcar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.87%. The volatility of related hype on Freightcar America is about 52961.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.46. About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 645.0. Freightcar America recorded a loss per share of 4.31. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of August 2017. The firm had 1:200 split on the April 17, 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Freightcar America Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Freightcar America Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Freightcar America's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Freightcar America's future price movements. Getting to know how Freightcar America's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Freightcar America may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GBX | Greenbrier Companies | (0.77) | 11 per month | 0.82 | 0.18 | 3.46 | (2.32) | 19.01 | |
| FSTR | LB Foster | 0.96 | 8 per month | 1.60 | 0.19 | 6.37 | (3.40) | 14.55 | |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake | (1.56) | 11 per month | 0.55 | 0.16 | 2.14 | (1.07) | 5.10 | |
| CSX | CSX Corporation | 0.50 | 9 per month | 1.79 | 0 | 2.20 | (2.44) | 11.99 | |
| TRN | Trinity Industries | 0.11 | 10 per month | 1.80 | 0.07 | 2.85 | (3.25) | 11.92 | |
| NSC | Norfolk Southern | (1.07) | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.05 | 2.69 | (2.27) | 12.14 | |
| UNP | Union Pacific | 1.00 | 10 per month | 1.40 | (0.09) | 1.72 | (2.01) | 8.64 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | (1.36) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.07 | (1.66) | 4.89 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 2.32 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.21 | (1.71) | 5.28 |
Freightcar America Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Freightcar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Freightcar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Freightcar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Freightcar America Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Freightcar America stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Freightcar America, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Freightcar America based on analysis of Freightcar America hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Freightcar America's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Freightcar America's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0144 | 0.007964 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.21 | 0.2 |
Story Coverage note for Freightcar America
The number of cover stories for Freightcar America depends on current market conditions and Freightcar America's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Freightcar America is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Freightcar America's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Freightcar America Short Properties
Freightcar America's future price predictability will typically decrease when Freightcar America's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Freightcar America often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Freightcar America's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Freightcar America's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.6 M |
Check out Freightcar America Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Freightcar Stock please use our How to buy in Freightcar Stock guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freightcar America. If investors know Freightcar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Freightcar America listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.31) | Revenue Per Share 16.728 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.664 | Return On Assets 0.0577 | Return On Equity (0.09) |
The market value of Freightcar America is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Freightcar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Freightcar America's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Freightcar America's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Freightcar America's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Freightcar America's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Freightcar America's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Freightcar America is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Freightcar America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.