Sibanye Gold Ltd Stock Price Patterns
| SBSW Stock | USD 16.04 1.19 6.91% |
Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Current Year 15.339 | EPS Estimate Next Year 44.899 | Wall Street Target Price 19.3106 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
Using Sibanye Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sibanye Gold Ltd from the perspective of Sibanye Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sibanye Gold using Sibanye Gold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sibanye using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sibanye Gold's stock price.
Sibanye Gold Short Interest
An investor who is long Sibanye Gold may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sibanye Gold and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sibanye Gold with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.504 | Short Percent 0.0244 | Short Ratio 1.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.8 M | 50 Day MA 15.8208 |
Sibanye Gold Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sibanye Gold's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sibanye. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sibanye can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sibanye Gold Ltd. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sibanye Gold's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sibanye Gold.
Sibanye Gold Implied Volatility | 1.05 |
Sibanye Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sibanye Gold Ltd stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sibanye Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sibanye Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sibanye Gold's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Sibanye Gold to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Sibanye because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Sibanye Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 17.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sibanye contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sibanye Gold Ltd will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0656% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Sibanye Gold trading at USD 16.04, that is roughly USD 0.0105 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sibanye Gold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sibanye Gold Ltd options at the current volatility level of 1.05%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Sibanye Gold Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sibanye Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sibanye Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sibanye Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sibanye Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sibanye Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sibanye Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sibanye Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sibanye Gold's historical news coverage. Sibanye Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.41 and 21.61, respectively. We have considered Sibanye Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sibanye Gold is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sibanye Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sibanye Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sibanye Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sibanye Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sibanye Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 4.60 | 0.12 | 0.70 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.04 | 17.01 | 1.28 |
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Sibanye Gold Hype Timeline
Sibanye Gold is at this time traded for 16.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.7. Sibanye is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.28%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.77%. The volatility of related hype on Sibanye Gold is about 505.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.34. About 22.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Sibanye Gold was at this time reported as 0.89. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.32. Sibanye Gold last dividend was issued on the 21st of September 2023. The entity had 102:100 split on the 5th of October 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Sibanye Gold Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Sibanye Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sibanye Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sibanye Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Sibanye Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sibanye Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.46 | 6 per month | 3.85 | 0.17 | 7.53 | (6.42) | 28.42 | |
| EQX | Equinox Gold Corp | 0.19 | 10 per month | 3.96 | 0.10 | 6.78 | (6.48) | 20.51 | |
| BTG | B2Gold Corp | (0.03) | 8 per month | 3.36 | 0.12 | 7.21 | (5.42) | 21.21 | |
| HL | Hecla Mining | 0.59 | 9 per month | 4.75 | 0.13 | 8.77 | (6.60) | 27.31 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.85 | 7 per month | 3.30 | 0.13 | 4.64 | (5.30) | 19.93 | |
| ICL | ICL Israel Chemicals | (0.02) | 6 per month | 1.93 | (0.02) | 3.07 | (3.58) | 8.69 | |
| EGO | Eldorado Gold Corp | (1.65) | 10 per month | 3.07 | 0.23 | 5.90 | (5.53) | 17.36 | |
| NG | NovaGold Resources | (0.03) | 10 per month | 5.02 | 0.08 | 8.92 | (7.39) | 33.05 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | (5.82) | 6 per month | 1.56 | 0.07 | 4.45 | (2.73) | 10.51 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | (3.64) | 9 per month | 2.61 | 0.19 | 6.40 | (5.20) | 14.98 |
Sibanye Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sibanye price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sibanye using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sibanye charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Sibanye Gold Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Sibanye Gold stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Sibanye Gold Ltd, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Sibanye Gold based on analysis of Sibanye Gold hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Sibanye Gold's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Sibanye Gold's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0755 | 0.004072 | 0.003665 | 0.003481 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Sibanye Stock Analysis
When running Sibanye Gold's price analysis, check to measure Sibanye Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sibanye Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Sibanye Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sibanye Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sibanye Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sibanye Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.