Upwork Inc Stock Price Prediction

UPWK Stock  USD 16.02  0.64  4.16%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Upwork's share price is above 70 as of now. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Upwork, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

79

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Upwork's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Upwork Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Upwork's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.7
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.22
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.0267
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.2026
Wall Street Target Price
17.3636
Using Upwork hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Upwork Inc from the perspective of Upwork response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Upwork Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Upwork's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Upwork. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Upwork can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Upwork Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Upwork's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Upwork.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Upwork to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Upwork because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Upwork after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 15.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Upwork Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Upwork's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.1215.5319.94
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.4513.8618.26
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.9214.2015.76
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.250.260.27
Details

Upwork After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Upwork at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Upwork or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Upwork, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Upwork Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Upwork's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Upwork's historical news coverage. Upwork's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.34 and 20.16, respectively. We have considered Upwork's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.02
15.75
After-hype Price
20.16
Upside
Upwork is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Upwork Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Upwork Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Upwork is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Upwork backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Upwork, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.86 
4.41
  0.27 
  0.62 
11 Events / Month
9 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.02
15.75
1.69 
1,423  
Notes

Upwork Hype Timeline

Upwork Inc is at this time traded for 16.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.62. Upwork is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.69%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.86%. The volatility of related hype on Upwork is about 612.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.40. About 79.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Upwork was at this time reported as 3.08. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5. Upwork Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Upwork Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Upwork Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Upwork's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Upwork's future price movements. Getting to know how Upwork's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Upwork may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
TBITrueBlue 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.54 (4.52) 16.74 
KELYAKelly Services A(0.92)9 per month 0.00 (0.21) 2.27 (4.04) 27.28 
TNETTriNet Group(2.24)7 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.91 (3.24) 16.26 
MANManpowerGroup(0.67)12 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.48 (2.84) 12.95 
NSPInsperity(3.53)9 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.40 (4.45) 13.22 
HRTHireRight Holdings Corp 0.00 7 per month 0.09 (0.60) 0.21 (0.21) 0.98 
KFRCKforce Inc 0.70 7 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.48 (3.03) 9.02 
PAYXPaychex(1.20)9 per month 0.52  0.08  2.19 (1.46) 8.29 
RHIRobert Half International 1.09 10 per month 1.02  0.09  2.85 (2.06) 13.22 
KFYKorn Ferry(0.72)10 per month 1.35  0.02  3.56 (2.17) 9.56 
HSIIHeidrick Struggles International(0.74)10 per month 1.29  0.11  3.31 (2.62) 15.55 
HQIHirequest(0.43)10 per month 2.13  0.06  5.05 (3.47) 14.14 

Upwork Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Upwork price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Upwork using various technical indicators. When you analyze Upwork charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Upwork Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Upwork stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Upwork Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Upwork based on analysis of Upwork hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Upwork's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Upwork's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Payables Turnover27.1221.2533.6731.98
Days Of Inventory On Hand3.0E-6367.4330.66347.19

Story Coverage note for Upwork

The number of cover stories for Upwork depends on current market conditions and Upwork's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Upwork is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Upwork's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Upwork Short Properties

Upwork's future price predictability will typically decrease when Upwork's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Upwork Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Upwork's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Upwork's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding137.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments550.1 M
When determining whether Upwork Inc is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Upwork Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Upwork Inc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Upwork Inc Stock:
Check out Upwork Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Human Resource & Employment Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Upwork. If investors know Upwork will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Upwork listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.7
Earnings Share
0.62
Revenue Per Share
5.676
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.103
Return On Assets
0.0371
The market value of Upwork Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Upwork that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Upwork's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Upwork's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Upwork's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Upwork's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Upwork's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Upwork is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Upwork's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.