Vale Sa Adr Stock Price Prediction
| VALE Stock | USD 16.44 0.74 4.71% |
Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5333 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1281 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1602 | Wall Street Target Price 14.8 |
Using Vale SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vale SA ADR from the perspective of Vale SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vale SA using Vale SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vale SA's stock price.
Vale SA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Vale SA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Vale. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Vale SA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 10.9232 | Short Percent 0.0168 | Short Ratio 2.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 66.8 M | 50 Day MA 13.2492 |
Vale SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vale SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vale. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vale can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vale SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vale SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vale SA.
Vale SA Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
Vale SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vale SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vale SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vale SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vale SA's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vale SA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vale because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vale SA after-hype prediction price | USD 16.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vale contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vale SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0275% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vale SA trading at USD 16.44, that is roughly USD 0.004521 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vale SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vale SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Vale SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Vale SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vale SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vale SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vale SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vale SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vale SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vale SA's historical news coverage. Vale SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.42 and 18.50, respectively. We have considered Vale SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vale SA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vale SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vale SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vale SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vale SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vale SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 2.13 | 0.02 | 2.14 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.44 | 16.46 | 0.12 |
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Vale SA Hype Timeline
Vale SA ADR is at this time traded for 16.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.14. Vale is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.65%. The volatility of related hype on Vale SA is about 64.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.58. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 38.06 B. Net Income was 5.86 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 74.25 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Vale SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vale SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vale SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vale SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Vale SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vale SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | 5.11 | 10 per month | 1.69 | (0.03) | 2.10 | (2.58) | 8.21 | |
| WPM | Wheaton Precious Metals | 0.58 | 10 per month | 1.73 | 0.27 | 4.11 | (2.91) | 9.66 | |
| CTVA | Corteva | 0.25 | 5 per month | 0.91 | 0.13 | 2.20 | (1.41) | 5.41 | |
| BHP | BHP Group Limited | (0.71) | 7 per month | 1.09 | 0.18 | 2.93 | (1.95) | 5.36 | |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | 23.55 | 8 per month | 1.48 | (0) | 1.89 | (2.34) | 8.83 | |
| GFI | Gold Fields Ltd | (1.20) | 10 per month | 2.66 | 0.16 | 6.28 | (6.11) | 14.92 | |
| FNV | Franco Nevada | 1.92 | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.25 | 3.37 | (1.89) | 8.99 | |
| AU | AngloGold Ashanti plc | 0.20 | 5 per month | 2.55 | 0.23 | 6.75 | (5.13) | 14.20 | |
| MT | ArcelorMittal SA ADR | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.28 | 3.96 | (1.87) | 6.19 | |
| B | Barrick Mining | 3.03 | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.31 | 4.37 | (3.07) | 12.93 |
Vale SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vale SA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vale SA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vale SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vale SA based on analysis of Vale SA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vale SA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vale SA's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0793 | 0.0897 | 0.0808 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.66 | 0.98 | 1.13 |
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Complementary Tools for Vale Stock analysis
When running Vale SA's price analysis, check to measure Vale SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vale SA is operating at the current time. Most of Vale SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vale SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vale SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vale SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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