Franco Nevada Stock Price Prediction
| FNV Stock | USD 123.23 1.78 1.47% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
41
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.94 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1954 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.9813 | Wall Street Target Price 152.8725 |
Using Franco Nevada hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Franco Nevada from the perspective of Franco Nevada response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Franco Nevada using Franco Nevada's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Franco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Franco Nevada's stock price.
Franco Nevada Implied Volatility | 0.54 |
Franco Nevada's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Franco Nevada stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Franco Nevada's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Franco Nevada stock will not fluctuate a lot when Franco Nevada's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Franco Nevada to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Franco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Franco Nevada after-hype prediction price | USD 123.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Franco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Franco Nevada will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0338% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Franco Nevada trading at USD 123.23, that is roughly USD 0.0416 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Franco Nevada's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Franco Nevada options at the current volatility level of 0.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Franco |
Franco Nevada After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Franco Nevada at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Franco Nevada or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Franco Nevada, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Franco Nevada Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Franco Nevada's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Franco Nevada's historical news coverage. Franco Nevada's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 121.59 and 124.91, respectively. We have considered Franco Nevada's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Franco Nevada is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Franco Nevada is based on 3 months time horizon.
Franco Nevada Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Franco Nevada is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Franco Nevada backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Franco Nevada, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.68 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
123.23 | 123.25 | 0.02 |
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Franco Nevada Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Franco Nevada is traded for 123.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Franco is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 123.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 94.38%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Franco Nevada is about 175.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 123.24. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.22 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (474.95 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.14 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Franco Nevada Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Franco Nevada Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Franco Nevada's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Franco Nevada's future price movements. Getting to know how Franco Nevada's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Franco Nevada may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | 0.69 | 10 per month | 1.77 | (0.03) | 3.08 | (2.69) | 11.67 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | 1.62 | 11 per month | 2.29 | 0.01 | 6.05 | (4.04) | 14.73 | |
| KGC | Kinross Gold | (0.52) | 10 per month | 2.60 | 0.01 | 5.41 | (3.82) | 18.27 | |
| BTG | B2Gold Corp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 2.26 | (0.02) | 3.90 | (4.09) | 17.88 | |
| RGLD | Royal Gold | 3.01 | 11 per month | 1.61 | 0.02 | 2.44 | (2.62) | 7.40 |
Franco Nevada Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Franco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Franco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Franco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Franco Nevada Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Franco Nevada stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Franco Nevada, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Franco Nevada based on analysis of Franco Nevada hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Franco Nevada's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Franco Nevada's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006736 | 0.007261 | 0.011 | 0.0112 | Price To Sales Ratio | 20.33 | 19.86 | 17.45 | 16.58 |
Story Coverage note for Franco Nevada
The number of cover stories for Franco Nevada depends on current market conditions and Franco Nevada's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Franco Nevada is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Franco Nevada's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Franco Nevada Short Properties
Franco Nevada's future price predictability will typically decrease when Franco Nevada's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Franco Nevada often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Franco Nevada's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Franco Nevada's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Additional Tools for Franco Stock Analysis
When running Franco Nevada's price analysis, check to measure Franco Nevada's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Franco Nevada is operating at the current time. Most of Franco Nevada's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Franco Nevada's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Franco Nevada's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Franco Nevada to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.