Vital Farms Stock Price Prediction
| VITL Stock | USD 30.61 0.42 1.35% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.6 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.112 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2233 | Wall Street Target Price 42 |
Using Vital Farms hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vital Farms from the perspective of Vital Farms response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vital Farms to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vital because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vital Farms after-hype prediction price | USD 31.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Vital |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vital Farms' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vital Farms After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vital Farms at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vital Farms or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vital Farms, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vital Farms Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vital Farms' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vital Farms' historical news coverage. Vital Farms' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.83 and 34.19, respectively. We have considered Vital Farms' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vital Farms is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vital Farms is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vital Farms Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vital Farms is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vital Farms backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vital Farms, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 3.18 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.61 | 31.01 | 0.06 |
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Vital Farms Hype Timeline
Vital Farms is at this time traded for 30.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Vital is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 31.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Vital Farms is about 2626.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.61. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 103.36. Vital Farms had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Vital Farms Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vital Farms Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vital Farms' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vital Farms' future price movements. Getting to know how Vital Farms' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vital Farms may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | (0.29) | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.12 | 2.30 | (1.99) | 12.38 | |
| ALCO | Alico Inc | 0.28 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.90 | (3.23) | 13.25 | |
| SANW | SW Seed Company | 0.00 | 10 per month | 6.45 | 0.02 | 13.03 | (10.31) | 35.84 | |
| AGRO | Adecoagro SA | (0.09) | 9 per month | 1.59 | (0.02) | 2.04 | (3.11) | 8.94 | |
| LND | Brasilagro Adr | (0.06) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.19 | (2.15) | 6.34 | |
| LMNR | Limoneira Co | (0.65) | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.10 | 5.63 | (3.01) | 11.73 | |
| DOLE | Dole PLC | 0.18 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.45 | (2.60) | 15.22 | |
| CALM | Cal Maine Foods | 1.82 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.21 | 3.33 | (1.86) | 9.06 | |
| AGRI | AgriFORCE Growing Systems | 0.0009 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 9.04 | (9.75) | 37.62 | |
| ADM | Archer Daniels Midland | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.10 | (2.23) | 9.15 |
Vital Farms Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vital price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vital using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vital charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vital Farms Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vital Farms stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vital Farms, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vital Farms based on analysis of Vital Farms hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vital Farms's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vital Farms's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001596 | 0.001418 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.58 | 1.5 |
Story Coverage note for Vital Farms
The number of cover stories for Vital Farms depends on current market conditions and Vital Farms' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vital Farms is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vital Farms' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vital Farms Short Properties
Vital Farms' future price predictability will typically decrease when Vital Farms' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vital Farms often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vital Farms' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vital Farms' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 116.8 M |
Check out Vital Farms Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Vital Stock please use our How to buy in Vital Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vital Farms. If investors know Vital will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vital Farms listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.6 | Earnings Share 1.12 | Revenue Per Share 13.619 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.313 | Return On Assets 0.1254 |
The market value of Vital Farms is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vital that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vital Farms' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vital Farms' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vital Farms' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vital Farms' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vital Farms' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vital Farms is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vital Farms' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.