Exxon Mobil Corp Stock Price Patterns
| XOM Stock | USD 149.05 2.97 2.03% |
Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5771 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.947 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.3426 | Wall Street Target Price 140.5833 |
Using Exxon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exxon Mobil Corp from the perspective of Exxon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Exxon using Exxon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Exxon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Exxon's stock price.
Exxon Short Interest
An investor who is long Exxon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Exxon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Exxon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 114.0449 | Short Percent 0.0128 | Short Ratio 2.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 46.7 M | 50 Day MA 124.0626 |
Exxon Mobil Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Exxon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exxon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exxon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exxon Mobil Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exxon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exxon.
Exxon Implied Volatility | 0.42 |
Exxon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exxon Mobil Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exxon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exxon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exxon's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Exxon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Exxon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Exxon after-hype prediction price | USD 148.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Exxon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Exxon Mobil Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0263% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Exxon trading at USD 149.05, that is roughly USD 0.0391 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Exxon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Exxon Mobil Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Exxon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Exxon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exxon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exxon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exxon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exxon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exxon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exxon's historical news coverage. Exxon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 146.96 and 149.96, respectively. We have considered Exxon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exxon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exxon Mobil Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exxon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exxon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exxon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exxon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 1.50 | 0.59 | 0.08 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
149.05 | 148.46 | 0.40 |
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Exxon Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Exxon Mobil Corp is traded for 149.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Exxon is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 148.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 104.9%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Exxon is about 737.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 149.13. About 67.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Exxon was at this time reported as 62.07. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.93. Exxon Mobil Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.71. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of July 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Exxon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Exxon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exxon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exxon's future price movements. Getting to know how Exxon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exxon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.02 | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.07 | 2.76 | (3.37) | 8.04 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | 0.50 | 12 per month | 1.46 | (0.03) | 2.22 | (2.18) | 8.28 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | (0.08) | 10 per month | 1.30 | 0.17 | 3.70 | (2.02) | 11.62 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 0.44 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.14 | 2.46 | (2.15) | 7.47 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | (0.08) | 11 per month | 1.85 | 0.10 | 4.31 | (3.24) | 9.18 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.42 | 30 per month | 1.56 | 0.16 | 4.21 | (2.07) | 10.67 |
Exxon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exxon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exxon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exxon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Exxon Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Exxon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Exxon based on analysis of Exxon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Exxon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Exxon's related companies. | 2023 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0369 | 0.0415 | 0.0407 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.21 | 1.23 | 0.82 |
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Exxon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Will Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector continue expanding? Could Exxon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exxon. Anticipated expansion of Exxon directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Exxon data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 4 | Earnings Share 6.71 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
Investors evaluate Exxon Mobil Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Exxon's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Exxon's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exxon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exxon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Exxon's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.