Xpo Logistics Stock Price Prediction
| XPO Stock | USD 148.23 0.37 0.25% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.856 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.6226 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.263 | Wall Street Target Price 156.0833 |
Using XPO Logistics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of XPO Logistics from the perspective of XPO Logistics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards XPO Logistics using XPO Logistics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards XPO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of XPO Logistics' stock price.
XPO Logistics Short Interest
An investor who is long XPO Logistics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about XPO Logistics and may potentially protect profits, hedge XPO Logistics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 128.9505 | Short Percent 0.0985 | Short Ratio 6.54 | Shares Short Prior Month 10 M | 50 Day MA 142.14 |
XPO Logistics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to XPO Logistics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in XPO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding XPO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around XPO Logistics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of XPO Logistics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about XPO Logistics.
XPO Logistics Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
XPO Logistics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of XPO Logistics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if XPO Logistics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that XPO Logistics stock will not fluctuate a lot when XPO Logistics' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in XPO Logistics to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying XPO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
XPO Logistics after-hype prediction price | USD 148.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current XPO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that XPO Logistics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With XPO Logistics trading at USD 148.23, that is roughly USD 0.0426 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating XPO Logistics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring XPO Logistics options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out XPO Logistics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. XPO Logistics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of XPO Logistics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in XPO Logistics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of XPO Logistics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
XPO Logistics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting XPO Logistics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on XPO Logistics' historical news coverage. XPO Logistics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 145.74 and 150.72, respectively. We have considered XPO Logistics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
XPO Logistics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of XPO Logistics is based on 3 months time horizon.
XPO Logistics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as XPO Logistics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading XPO Logistics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with XPO Logistics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.40 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
148.23 | 148.23 | 0.00 |
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XPO Logistics Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January XPO Logistics is traded for 148.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. XPO is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 137.93%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on XPO Logistics is about 91.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 148.44. About 98.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.43. XPO Logistics had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1683:1000 split on the 1st of November 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out XPO Logistics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.XPO Logistics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to XPO Logistics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict XPO Logistics' future price movements. Getting to know how XPO Logistics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how XPO Logistics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.17 | 3.32 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | (0.59) | 10 per month | 0.62 | 0.22 | 2.46 | (1.63) | 13.29 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 3.33 | 10 per month | 0.51 | 0.20 | 2.87 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| ZTO | ZTO Express | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.11 | 2.73 | (1.81) | 7.33 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | 12.45 | 19 per month | 2.39 | 0.09 | 4.38 | (4.58) | 13.07 | |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | (0.68) | 7 per month | 1.22 | 0.16 | 4.42 | (2.51) | 9.54 | |
| ULS | UL Solutions | 1.28 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.60 | (3.28) | 21.27 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 4.61 | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.12 | 3.42 | (2.14) | 16.03 | |
| TRU | TransUnion | 1.84 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.72 | (3.03) | 9.21 | |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology | 3.14 | 8 per month | 2.17 | 0.04 | 4.64 | (2.90) | 13.05 |
XPO Logistics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine XPO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for XPO using various technical indicators. When you analyze XPO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About XPO Logistics Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of XPO Logistics stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as XPO Logistics, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of XPO Logistics based on analysis of XPO Logistics hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to XPO Logistics's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to XPO Logistics's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.003476 | 0.003302 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.7 | 1.78 |
Pair Trading with XPO Logistics
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if XPO Logistics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in XPO Logistics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with XPO Stock
| 0.78 | EXPD | Expeditors International | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | FDX | FedEx | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | FWRD | Forward Air | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | UPS | United Parcel Service | PairCorr |
Moving against XPO Stock
| 0.71 | HKPD | Hong Kong Pharma | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | 002352 | SF Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | ATXG | Addentax Group Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | AIRT | Air T Inc | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to XPO Logistics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace XPO Logistics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back XPO Logistics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling XPO Logistics to buy it.
The correlation of XPO Logistics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as XPO Logistics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if XPO Logistics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for XPO Logistics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out XPO Logistics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in XPO Stock, please use our How to Invest in XPO Logistics guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Will Air Freight & Logistics sector continue expanding? Could XPO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of XPO Logistics. Anticipated expansion of XPO directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every XPO Logistics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 2.79 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.028 | Return On Assets |
The market value of XPO Logistics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of XPO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of XPO Logistics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is XPO Logistics' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because XPO Logistics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect XPO Logistics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between XPO Logistics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if XPO Logistics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, XPO Logistics' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.