Groupon Stock Market Value
| GRPN Stock | USD 10.50 0.06 0.57% |
| Symbol | Groupon |
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Groupon 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Groupon's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Groupon.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 01/30/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Groupon on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Groupon or generate 0.0% return on investment in Groupon over 90 days. Groupon is related to or competes with Twilio, Getty Images, Baidu, Snap, ANGI Homeservices, IAC, and Yelp. Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants More
Groupon Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Groupon's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Groupon upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.58 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0161 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 34.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.17 |
Groupon Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Groupon's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Groupon's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Groupon historical prices to predict the future Groupon's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0369 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1949 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.42) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0137 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.09) |
Groupon Backtested Returns
As of now, Groupon Stock is slightly risky. Groupon holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.034, which attests that the entity had a 0.034 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Groupon, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Groupon's Downside Deviation of 6.58, risk adjusted performance of 0.0369, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.08) to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Groupon has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.16, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Groupon are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Groupon is likely to outperform the market. Groupon right now retains a risk of 5.59%. Please check out Groupon maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the expected short fall and rate of daily change , to decide if Groupon will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.66 |
Very good reverse predictability
Groupon has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Groupon time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of December 2024 and 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Groupon price movement. The serial correlation of -0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current Groupon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.53 |
Groupon lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Groupon stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Groupon's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Groupon returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Groupon has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Groupon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Groupon stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Groupon stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Groupon stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Groupon Lagged Returns
When evaluating Groupon's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Groupon stock have on its future price. Groupon autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Groupon autocorrelation shows the relationship between Groupon stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Groupon.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Groupon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Groupon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Groupon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Groupon Stock
Moving against Groupon Stock
| 0.5 | VSTA | Vasta Platform | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | BC | Brunswick | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | CPNG | Coupang LLC | PairCorr |
| 0.33 | BBY | Best Buy | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Groupon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Groupon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Groupon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Groupon to buy it.
The correlation of Groupon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Groupon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Groupon moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Groupon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Groupon Correlation, Groupon Volatility and Groupon Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Groupon. To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Groupon technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.