Groupon Stock Price Patterns
| GRPN Stock | USD 14.15 0.61 4.13% |
Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Groupon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Groupon from the perspective of Groupon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Groupon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Groupon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Groupon after-hype prediction price | USD 14.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Groupon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Groupon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Groupon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Groupon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Groupon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Groupon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Groupon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Groupon's historical news coverage. Groupon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.34 and 18.18, respectively. We have considered Groupon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Groupon is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Groupon is based on 3 months time horizon.
Groupon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Groupon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Groupon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Groupon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 3.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.15 | 14.76 | 0.00 |
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Groupon Hype Timeline
Groupon is currently traded for 14.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Groupon is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.56%. %. The volatility of related hype on Groupon is about 114000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.15. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.54. Groupon last dividend was issued on the 11th of June 2020. The entity had 1:20 split on the 11th of June 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Groupon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Groupon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Groupon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Groupon's future price movements. Getting to know how Groupon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Groupon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVER | EverQuote Class A | (1.23) | 9 per month | 2.14 | 0.05 | 4.31 | (3.84) | 14.16 | |
| GETY | Getty Images Holdings | 0.21 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 5.51 | (6.63) | 18.86 | |
| MAX | MediaAlpha | 0.21 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.77 | (3.46) | 14.80 | |
| FVRR | Fiverr International | 0.50 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.22 | (4.82) | 11.60 | |
| SSTK | Shutterstock | 0.36 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.72 | (4.09) | 12.18 | |
| NXDR | NXDR | (0.49) | 13 per month | 3.84 | 0.01 | 8.06 | (5.73) | 40.31 | |
| ATHM | Autohome | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.84 | (3.05) | 7.71 | |
| SMWB | SimilarWeb | 0.21 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.90 | (6.53) | 15.47 | |
| NMAX | Newsmax | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.55 | (5.42) | 20.81 | |
| CCO | Clear Channel Outdoor | (0.06) | 10 per month | 2.25 | 0.06 | 5.62 | (4.07) | 11.41 |
Groupon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Groupon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Groupon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Groupon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Groupon Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Groupon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Groupon, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Groupon based on analysis of Groupon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Groupon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Groupon's related companies.
Pair Trading with Groupon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Groupon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Groupon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Groupon Stock
| 0.44 | PKX | POSCO Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | JNJ | Johnson Johnson | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | CVX | Chevron Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | PHJMF | PT Hanjaya Mandala | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Groupon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Groupon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Groupon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Groupon to buy it.
The correlation of Groupon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Groupon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Groupon moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Groupon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Groupon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Groupon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. Market participants price Groupon higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Groupon data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Groupon's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.