Groupon Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 9.20
| GRPN Stock | USD 9.20 0.70 8.24% |
Groupon |
Groupon Target Price Odds to finish over 9.20
The tendency of Groupon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 9.20 | 90 days | 9.20 | about 87.59 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Groupon to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 87.59 (This Groupon probability density function shows the probability of Groupon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Groupon will likely underperform. Additionally Groupon has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Groupon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Groupon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Groupon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Groupon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Groupon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Groupon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Groupon, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Groupon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Groupon Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Groupon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Groupon can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Groupon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Groupon has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Groupon has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Groupon currently holds 278.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.99, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Groupon has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Groupon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 514.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.82 M. | |
| Groupon currently holds about 308 M in cash with (77.98 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.12, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Groupon has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 75.0% of Groupon shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Evaluating Groupon Stock Pre-Q3 Earnings Buy, Hold, or Avoid - MSN |
Groupon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Groupon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Groupon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Groupon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 141.6 M |
Groupon Technical Analysis
Groupon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Groupon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Groupon. In general, you should focus on analyzing Groupon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Groupon Predictive Forecast Models
Groupon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Groupon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Groupon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Groupon
Checking the ongoing alerts about Groupon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Groupon help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Groupon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Groupon has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Groupon has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Groupon currently holds 278.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.99, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Groupon has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Groupon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 514.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.82 M. | |
| Groupon currently holds about 308 M in cash with (77.98 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.12, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Groupon has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 75.0% of Groupon shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Evaluating Groupon Stock Pre-Q3 Earnings Buy, Hold, or Avoid - MSN |
Check out Groupon Backtesting, Groupon Valuation, Groupon Correlation, Groupon Hype Analysis, Groupon Volatility, Groupon History as well as Groupon Performance. To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.092 | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 13.442 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) | Return On Assets 0.0197 |
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.