Shoe Carnival Stock Performance
| SCVL Stock | USD 18.48 0.32 1.70% |
Shoe Carnival has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 1.59, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Shoe Carnival will likely underperform. Shoe Carnival right now has a risk of 3.06%. Please validate Shoe Carnival value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and price action indicator , to decide if Shoe Carnival will be following its existing price patterns.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Soft
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Shoe Carnival are ranked lower than 3 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite quite unfluctuating basic indicators, Shoe Carnival may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in February 2026. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return (2.29) | Five Day Return (5.72) | Year To Date Return 7.43 | Ten Year Return 67.86 | All Time Return 446.51 |
Forward Dividend Yield 0.0312 | Payout Ratio | Last Split Factor 2:1 | Forward Dividend Rate 0.6 | Dividend Date 2026-01-26 |
1 | Shoe Carnival, Inc. SCVL Holdings Boosted by Connor Clark Lunn Investment Management Ltd. | 11/19/2025 |
2 | Personal CFO Solutions LLC Buys New Position in Shoe Carnival, Inc. SCVL | 11/24/2025 |
3 | Shoe Carnival Downgraded by Zacks Research to Hold - MarketBeat | 11/28/2025 |
4 | Shoe Carnival and Williams-Sonoma Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - Yahoo Finance | 12/10/2025 |
5 | We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Shoe Carnival | 12/29/2025 |
6 | Disposition of 3313 shares by Sifford Clifton E of Shoe Carnival at 16.88 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 01/02/2026 |
7 | North Star Investment Management Corp. Grows Stock Holdings in Shoe Carnival, Inc. SCVL | 01/06/2026 |
8 | Shoe Carnival shares inch higher as Q3 revenue tops forecasts - MSN | 01/15/2026 |
| Shoe Carnival dividend paid on 26th of January 2026 | 01/26/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 99 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -77.7 M |
Shoe Carnival Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 1,799 in Shoe Carnival on October 30, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 81.00 from holding Shoe Carnival or generate 4.5% return on investment over 90 days. Shoe Carnival is currently generating 0.1193% in daily expected returns and assumes 3.0575% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 27% of stocks are less volatile than Shoe, and 98% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Shoe Carnival Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Shoe Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 18.48 | 90 days | 18.48 | about 29.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Shoe Carnival to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 29.18 (This Shoe Carnival probability density function shows the probability of Shoe Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.59 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Shoe Carnival will likely underperform. Additionally Shoe Carnival has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Shoe Carnival Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Shoe Carnival
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shoe Carnival. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shoe Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shoe Carnival Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Shoe Carnival is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Shoe Carnival's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Shoe Carnival, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Shoe Carnival within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Shoe Carnival Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Shoe Carnival for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Shoe Carnival can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Shoe Carnival had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 26th of January 2026 Shoe Carnival paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Shoe Carnival shares inch higher as Q3 revenue tops forecasts - MSN |
Shoe Carnival Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Shoe Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Shoe Carnival's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shoe Carnival's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123.1 M |
Shoe Carnival Fundamentals Growth
Shoe Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Shoe Carnival, and Shoe Carnival fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Shoe Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | 0.0878 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0377 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.05 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.06 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 781.82 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 27.37 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 6.77 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.77 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.46 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.2 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 418.09 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 128.87 M | ||||
| Net Income | 73.77 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 47.52 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 1.73 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 367.99 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.65 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 2.84 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 24.96 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 102.64 M | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 2.10 X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 526.69 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 1.12 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 773.35 M | ||||
| Working Capital | 405.72 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 370.08 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 87.93 M | ||||
About Shoe Carnival Performance
By examining Shoe Carnival's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Shoe Carnival's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Shoe Carnival is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 133.39 | 118.90 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | (0.07) | (0.07) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (0.08) | (0.08) | |
| Return On Assets | (0.07) | (0.07) | |
| Return On Equity | (0.12) | (0.11) |
Things to note about Shoe Carnival performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Shoe Carnival for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Shoe Carnival help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Shoe Carnival had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 26th of January 2026 Shoe Carnival paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Shoe Carnival shares inch higher as Q3 revenue tops forecasts - MSN |
- Analyzing Shoe Carnival's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Shoe Carnival's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Shoe Carnival's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Shoe Carnival's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Shoe Carnival's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Shoe Carnival's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Shoe Carnival's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Shoe Carnival. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in private. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shoe Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 0.585 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Shoe Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shoe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shoe Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shoe Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shoe Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shoe Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shoe Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.