Shoe Carnival Stock Price Prediction
| SCVL Stock | USD 26.88 0.63 2.29% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.155 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6267 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.0233 | Wall Street Target Price 49 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.67 |
Using Shoe Carnival hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shoe Carnival from the perspective of Shoe Carnival response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Shoe Carnival using Shoe Carnival's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Shoe using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Shoe Carnival's stock price.
Shoe Carnival Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Shoe Carnival's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shoe Carnival stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shoe Carnival's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shoe Carnival stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shoe Carnival's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Shoe Carnival to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Shoe because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Shoe Carnival after-hype prediction price | USD 27.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Shoe contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Shoe Carnival will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Shoe Carnival trading at USD 26.88, that is roughly USD 0.0166 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Shoe Carnival's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Shoe Carnival options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Shoe |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shoe Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shoe Carnival After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shoe Carnival at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shoe Carnival or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shoe Carnival, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shoe Carnival Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shoe Carnival's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shoe Carnival's historical news coverage. Shoe Carnival's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.84 and 30.06, respectively. We have considered Shoe Carnival's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shoe Carnival is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shoe Carnival is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shoe Carnival Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shoe Carnival is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shoe Carnival backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shoe Carnival, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 2.63 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.88 | 27.45 | 0.99 |
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Shoe Carnival Hype Timeline
Shoe Carnival is at this time traded for 26.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Shoe is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 27.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.99%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Shoe Carnival is about 1831.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.93. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.18 B. Net Income was 73.35 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 444.15 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Shoe Carnival Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Shoe Carnival Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shoe Carnival's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shoe Carnival's future price movements. Getting to know how Shoe Carnival's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shoe Carnival may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HIBB | Hibbett Sports | (0.27) | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.56 | (0.24) | 19.75 | |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | 0.14 | 8 per month | 2.47 | 0.13 | 5.76 | (3.30) | 21.30 | |
| ZUMZ | Zumiez Inc | 0.35 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.80 | (5.74) | 21.07 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.11 | 2.88 | (2.21) | 9.59 | |
| CATO | Cato Corporation | 0.14 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.14 | (7.29) | 32.96 | |
| GCO | Genesco | 0.01 | 13 per month | 2.32 | 0.17 | 8.39 | (3.81) | 16.98 | |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | 0.36 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.07 | 2.16 | (2.47) | 7.93 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | (0.22) | 9 per month | 6.01 | (0.01) | 9.28 | (7.56) | 35.52 | |
| GES | Guess Inc | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.13 | (4.24) | 12.49 | |
| TLYS | Tillys Inc | 0.05 | 12 per month | 3.29 | 0 | 7.29 | (5.51) | 17.25 | |
| JILL | JJill Inc | 0.78 | 10 per month | 1.99 | 0.07 | 3.84 | (3.48) | 11.63 |
Shoe Carnival Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shoe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shoe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shoe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Shoe Carnival Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Shoe Carnival stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Shoe Carnival, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Shoe Carnival based on analysis of Shoe Carnival hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Shoe Carnival's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Shoe Carnival's related companies. | 2014 | 2020 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.0486 | 0.0511 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.5 | 0.61 | 0.23 | 0.35 |
Story Coverage note for Shoe Carnival
The number of cover stories for Shoe Carnival depends on current market conditions and Shoe Carnival's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shoe Carnival is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shoe Carnival's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Shoe Carnival Short Properties
Shoe Carnival's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shoe Carnival's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shoe Carnival often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shoe Carnival's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shoe Carnival's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 111.2 M |
Check out Shoe Carnival Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shoe Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.155 | Earnings Share 2.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Shoe Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shoe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shoe Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shoe Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shoe Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shoe Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shoe Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.