Shoe Carnival Stock Technical Analysis
| SCVL Stock | USD 20.09 0.12 0.60% |
As of the 17th of February 2026, Shoe Carnival has the Coefficient Of Variation of 946.28, risk adjusted performance of 0.0924, and Semi Deviation of 2.37. In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Shoe Carnival, as well as the relationship between them. Please validate Shoe Carnival variance, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the Value At Risk and skewness to decide if Shoe Carnival is priced more or less accurately, providing market reflects its prevalent price of 20.09 per share. Given that Shoe Carnival has jensen alpha of 0.2058, we advise you to double-check Shoe Carnival's current market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
Shoe Carnival Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Shoe, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to ShoeShoe Carnival's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Shoe Carnival Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 19.0 | Buy | 3 | Odds |
Most Shoe analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Shoe stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Shoe Carnival, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Shoe conference calls.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Shoe Carnival assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 0.585 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Understanding Shoe Carnival requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Shoe's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Shoe Carnival's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Shoe Carnival's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Shoe Carnival's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.
Shoe Carnival 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Shoe Carnival's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Shoe Carnival.
| 11/19/2025 |
| 02/17/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Shoe Carnival on November 19, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Shoe Carnival or generate 0.0% return on investment in Shoe Carnival over 90 days. Shoe Carnival is related to or competes with Oxford Industries, Stitch Fix, Legacy Housing, Continental, Ballys Corp, MarineMax, and Bloomin Brands. Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States More
Shoe Carnival Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Shoe Carnival's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Shoe Carnival upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0805 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.95 |
Shoe Carnival Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Shoe Carnival's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Shoe Carnival's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Shoe Carnival historical prices to predict the future Shoe Carnival's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0924 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2058 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0774 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0851 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2177 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shoe Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shoe Carnival February 17, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0924 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2277 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 946.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.74 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0805 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2058 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0774 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0851 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2177 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.37) | |||
| Skewness | 0.0938 | |||
| Kurtosis | (0.28) |
Shoe Carnival Backtested Returns
Shoe Carnival appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Shoe Carnival owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which indicates the firm had a 0.13 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Shoe Carnival, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Shoe Carnival's Semi Deviation of 2.37, coefficient of variation of 946.28, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0924 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Shoe Carnival holds a performance score of 10. The entity has a beta of 1.3, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Shoe Carnival will likely underperform. Please check Shoe Carnival's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether Shoe Carnival's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.31 |
Below average predictability
Shoe Carnival has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Shoe Carnival time series from 19th of November 2025 to 3rd of January 2026 and 3rd of January 2026 to 17th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Shoe Carnival price movement. The serial correlation of 0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Shoe Carnival price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.63 |
Shoe Carnival technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of Shoe Carnival volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
About Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Shoe Carnival on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Shoe Carnival based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Shoe Carnival price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Shoe Carnival. By analyzing Shoe Carnival's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Shoe Carnival's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Shoe Carnival specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2014 | 2020 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.011 | 0.02 | 0.0486 | 0.0511 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.5 | 0.61 | 0.23 | 0.36 |
Shoe Carnival February 17, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Shoe help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shoe from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Shoe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0924 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2277 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 946.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.74 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0805 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2058 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0774 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0851 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2177 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.37) | |||
| Skewness | 0.0938 | |||
| Kurtosis | (0.28) |
Shoe Carnival February 17, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Shoe stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.04 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.14 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | ||
| Day Median Price | 19.87 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 19.94 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.28 | ||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.86 |
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Shoe Carnival. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Shoe Carnival assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 0.585 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Understanding Shoe Carnival requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Shoe's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Shoe Carnival's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Shoe Carnival's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Shoe Carnival's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.